Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economy shifts up a gear 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa comes back into the firing line The South African rand has come under pressure this month as renewed attention on monetary tightening in the US has put the country’s large current account deficit back into the spotlight. The latest... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks linger in parts of the EM world As the Fed moves towards a first interest rate hike, the Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) shows that financial risks are at a decade low. As such, a systemic emerging market (EM) crisis seems... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s markets rebound, but SA’s take a tumble Ghana’s markets have rallied in response to the news that the government has turned to the IMF for support, with the currency strengthening and the yields of dollar-denominated bonds falling this... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Prospects for EM currencies differ despite broad sell-off The sell-off in emerging market currencies so far this month has been broad-based, but we expect investors to become more selective soon. We think a number of currencies will probably rebound, while... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling commodity prices to help keep EM inflation subdued Recent falls in the prices of oil and a number of agricultural commodities add to the reasons to expect EM inflation to stay muted over the coming months. But while in aggregate we think that... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next SARB Governor faces an uphill task Speculation is mounting that one of the current Deputy Governors will take over from Gill Marcus as Governor of the South African Reserve Bank. But the bigger picture is that, whoever is appointed... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria's export sector to continue dragging on growth The weakness of Nigeria’s export sector is down to a variety of factors, including a lack of competitiveness, falling oil prices and the expansion of shale oil extraction in the US. These factors... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower oil prices are a problem for Lat Am, not the Gulf Major oil producers in the Gulf stand to lose the most in absolute terms from the recent fall in prices, but conservative management of the oil sector means that the region will simply save less. By... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian rates likely to remain unchanged until after election The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold today and we do not expect any major shifts in the stance of monetary policy in the near term. The risks to inflation are skewed to the... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rates left unchanged as Marcus steps down The decision by the South African Reserve Bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.75% today was overshadowed by the announcement that Governor Marcus will step down in November. Whoever assumes... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Less to the narrowing of Egypt’s trade deficit than meets the eye The latest headline trade figures from Egypt suggest that the country’s trade deficit has narrowed sharply over the past year, reducing a key economic vulnerability. However, by taking a closer look... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising US Treasury yields would not slow EM growth Concerns that the policy tightening implied by the latest Fed forecasts would eventually lead to higher US Treasury yields and hinder EM growth are probably misplaced. A handful of EMs arevulnerable... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Towards a more nuanced view on EM rates We are often asked whether the next big move in EM interest rates will be up or down, but in truth the sheer diversity of the economies within the emerging world renders any “one-size-fits-all” rule... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana keeps rates on hold as IMF talks open The Ghanaian authorities’ turn to the IMF and the subsequent rally in the cedi allowed the central bank to keep interest rates on hold today, in spite of above target inflation. Looking ahead, we... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies suffer further loses Emerging market (EM) currencies have had a rough ride recently, adding to what was already shaping up to be a poor year. Our synthetic EM exchange rate index is down by 1.5% against the dollar in the... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
