Africa Economics Update South African markets shrug off bank downgrades South African markets appear to have taken the collapse of African Bank and the subsequent decision by Moody’s to downgrade the ratings of the country’s four largest banks in their stride. Local... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Asia pulls ahead Growth in the emerging world has remained stuck at around 4.5% y/y in recent months, but the aggregate number masks a recent divergence in regional performance. Growth has slowed in Latin America and... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Glimmers of hope for reform of South Africa’s labour market South Africa’s labour market rigidities have been a key constraint on economic growth over the past few years, but some recent developments have given glimmers of hope that much-needed reform can be... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update An anatomy of the EM slowdown Despite the recent attention given to the EM slowdown, it actually began back in 2010, and growth has been stuck at a sluggish rate for the last two years. The BRIC economies account for much of the... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Cracks emerge in the “Africa Rising” story The long-run growth outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains good, but recent developments have caused cracks to emerge in the “Africa Rising” story. Budget and current account positions have... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests continued weakness in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that, following the contraction in Q1, the South African economy avoided entering recession in Q2, but only by the skin of its teeth. The bigger picture is that growth remains... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports strengthen on Asia rebound Emerging market exports rose at their fastest pace in over a year in June and more timely data suggest that export growth may have strengthened further last month. This improvement has been driven by... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2014) Having slowed over the past couple of years, there are signs that consumer spending in some parts of the emerging world is starting to recover. However, the pick-up has so far been confined to EMs in... 7th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update After Zambia and Ghana, will others turn to the IMF? Recent moves by both Zambia and Ghana to request IMF help have focused attention on vulnerabilities in other economies in the region that run large current account deficits. But strong inflows of... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana faces up to economic woes by turning to the IMF Ghana’s authorities bowed to the inevitable on Sunday by formally requesting help from the IMF in dealing with the country’s enormous twin budget and current account deficits. The most likely form of... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturing in dire straits South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for July makes for grim reading. The index is now consistent with an outright contraction in the sector of around 5-6% y/y, and suggests that even our below-consensus... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Tightening cycles have further to run The tightening cycles that began in Ghana and South Africa earlier this year continued in July and, in both cases, we think that further interest rate hikes are likely before the end of 2014. Ghana’s... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Signs of recovery in North Africa Following a difficult few years, the latest data have provided further evidence that things are improving in North Africa. It looks like growth in both Tunisia and Egypt accelerated over the first... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Are EM credit spreads about to surge? The yields of dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds have been broadly flat over the past month after having declined by over one percentage point between the end of January and the end... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM demographic challenge not the disaster that many expect The contribution that favourable demographics have made to emerging market growth over the past couple of decades is often overplayed. In reality, the growth of working age populations has played only... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African dollar bond rush continues Following hot on the heels of Kenya’s debut auction, both the Ivory Coast and Senegal returned to the market in July with issues of 10-year dollar-denominated debt. With yields across the region... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
