Africa Economics Focus African consumer boom has much further to run Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA's) consumer market has quadrupled in size since 2000, and is now worth over US$650bn. While some of the tailwinds that have supported consumption over the past decade are... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Taking stock of Saudi Arabia’s migrant crackdown Saudi Arabia’s wide-scale crackdown on illegal migrant workers seems unlikely to have the desired effect of raising the employment of Saudi nationals in the private sector. In the short term, it runs... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How might policymakers react when the EM credit bubble bursts? We have previously identified six emerging markets where credit growth appears to be unsustainable: Brazil, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and Turkey. In the event of a crisis, past experience... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do China’s reforms mean for other EMs? The shift in China's growth model that has been signalled by its leadership would benefit many economies elsewhere in the emerging world while causing difficulties for others. Major commodity... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nelson Mandela’s economic legacy Nelson Mandela’s role in the political development of South Africa is unquestionable, but significant economic progress was also made under his leadership. However, this is now in danger of being... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: further rate cuts may come in 2014 In spite of October’s rise in inflation, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to cut interest rates today. It looks like the decision was prompted by the weakness of recent hard activity data, as... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Capital outflows from Nigeria could become a risk A sizeable current account surplus means that capital outflows from Nigeria are not a cause for concern at the moment. However, a sustained fall in oil prices, as well as the appointment of a more... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Elections in the "Fragile Five": threat or an opportunity? Each of the five countries that were the worst hit by the summer currency sell-off (the so-called “Fragile Five”) are due to hold important elections next year. In the short term, uncertainty ahead of... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian economy may be finding its feet November's PMI data provide further evidence that the Egyptian economy may be finding its feet after a tumultuous summer. Meanwhile, the Saudi PMI pointed to a pick-up in growth in the non-oil sector... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s current account deficit balloons in Q3 South Africa’s current account deficit widened to its largest level since 2008 in Q3. What’s more, the shortfall continues to be funded in large part by short-term capital inflows. As such, the... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRIC manufacturing recovery lags behind Manufacturing in the emerging world remains on course for a fairly strong final quarter of the year. Our EM-wide manufacturing PMI, based on data produced by Markit, is consistent with industrial... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI picks up but challenges still remain Following the sharp contraction in South African manufacturing in Q3, the latest PMI reading suggests that the sector may have staged a rebound so far in Q4. Nevertheless, a number of domestic... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Central banks turn more hawkish Interest rates were kept on hold in South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana this month, but the more interesting aspect of the announcements was the notably hawkish tone struck by policymakers. In... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Asia leads the way, but growth remains weak across EM world Our GDP Tracker suggests that although EM growth has probably picked up a little recently, it is too soon to talk about a meaningful rebound. Signs of recovery are strongest in Emerging Asia... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana set to tighten monetary policy next year The Central Bank of Ghana kept interest rates on hold today, but the tepid pace of fiscal consolidation and a weakening currency mean that monetary policy is likely to be tightened over the coming... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai equities hit five-year high as World Expo vote looms Dubai’s equity market hit a five-year high this month amid growing optimism surrounding the Emirate’s economic rebound. Confidence may be given an extra boost if, as is widely expected, Dubai wins the... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
