Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Weak growth but no crisis Financial markets have awakened to the vulnerabilities in the emerging world. These are real and will weigh on growth in the years ahead. But we believe that the doomsayers will be proved wrong – an... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Suez revenue is not offsetting broader economic losses The fact that the Egyptian authorities seem determined on keeping the Suez Canal open is clearly a positive for world trade. But it is not enough to offset the weakness in other sectors of the... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Oil production alone won’t solve Ghana’s deficit problems On the face of it, comments yesterday from Ghana’s Finance Minister that oil revenues have been larger than expected this year should ease some concerns over the sustainability of the country’s twin... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf economies motoring ahead September’s PMI data point to a marked pick-up in activity in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors, supported by an improving external environment. By contrast, the Egyptian economy is showing little sign of... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Q2 GDP data shed light on Egypt’s economic troubles GDP data released over the past few days provide evidence that the Egyptian economy was struggling even before the country’s “second revolution”. Elsewhere, there was better news from Morocco, while... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continues, but unevenly Our EM-wide PMI suggests that the recovery in EM manufacturing continued at the end of Q3. However, the improvement is uneven. The rebound was most prominent in Emerging Europe, helped by the... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI falls but still indicates decent growth in Q3 The South African PMI fell back in September but, following strong readings in the previous two months, it is likely that the manufacturing sector recorded decent growth in Q3 as a whole. 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update September PMIs suggest manufacturing may have turned a corner The September PMIs for Emerging Asia show that manufacturing conditions have improved, with the headline number increasing in all six economies. Moreover, a broad-based rise in the new orders... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fall in Tunisia’s government not a major economic setback News that Tunisia’s government has agreed to step down at some point over the next few weeks provides a further reason to think that growth there will remain sluggish and that fiscal reforms may slip... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: trade deficit to keep pressure on the rand South Africa’s trade deficit was wider than expected in August, as the ongoing weakness of the rand led to a surge in the local-currency cost of oil imports. In turn, a widening trade deficit could... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Quick-fire reforms won’t prevent renewed taper-turbulence Suggestions that policymakers in troubled emerging markets (EM) now have a window of opportunity to reduce external vulnerabilities before the Fed begins to taper miss the point that these countries’... 27th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria bucks the inflation trend... for now Inflation has edged up in most countries in Africa in recent months, but Nigeria has bucked the trend. Here, inflation dropped to its slowest pace since April 2008 last month. This has been due in... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Talk of “Great Deceleration” overlooks recent stabilisation Despite recent talk of a “Great Deceleration” in the emerging world, our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has stabilised – albeit at a weak pace – over the past few months. 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Regional divergence in stock market valuations The recovery in emerging market equities – up almost 6% on average since this time last month – has boosted price/earnings ratios across almost all the major regions. From a historical perspective... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Equity markets rebound on back of Syria deal & Fed decision Equity markets have recovered some of their earlier lost ground as concerns overWestern military intervention in Syria, as well as fears of a tapering of QE3 by theUS Federal Reserve, have eased. 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Short-lived relief for India and Indonesia Last week’s surprise decision by the US Fed to delay tapering of its QE programme provided an immediate boost to currencies and equity markets across Asia, including those in two of the region’s most... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
