Emerging Europe Economics Update Few signs of EM inflation pressures Emerging market inflation edged down in August and there’s little evidence to suggest that there will be a significant rise in price pressures over the coming months. 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian interest rates to stay on hold for prolonged period The weakness of the naira and concerns over loose fiscal policy meant the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today, despite inflation remaining comfortably below... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African markets rally as Fed delays tapering The surprise decision by the US Fed to delay the tapering of its asset purchases this month has provided a temporary reprieve for emerging market assets, including those in Africa. In light of this... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Fed brings some relief to EM currencies Financial markets across the emerging world have rallied in the wake of the Fed’s decision to delay QE tapering, easing concerns that several EMs were on the cusp of currency crises. As it happens... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update More Egyptian rate cuts could be on the way The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision to cut interest rates by 50bp today shows that policymakers are fully focussed on supporting the economy. With the backing of aid from the Gulf, additional... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: rates on hold despite Fed surprise The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left rates on hold today and gave no indication that any change was likely in the foreseeable future. Growth remains below trend, but policymakers expect... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A reprieve for troubled EMs, but fundamental problems persist The Fed’s decision yesterday not to taper its asset purchases just yet provides some breathing room for the more troubled emerging economies. But their structural problems remain and uncertainty about... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies gathering pace Growth in the Gulf States appears to have accelerated in recent months. Oil production has surged in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, at least in part as a response to supply disruptions in Libya. And in the... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: twin deficits to keep monetary policy tight A failure to sufficiently rein in large budget and current account deficits means that further monetary tightening is still likely in Ghana, despite the Central Bank’s decision to keep interest rates... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic impact of Fed tapering revisited We expect the Fed to announce a small reduction in its asset purchases at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting. In this Update we revisit the implications for EMs and explain why, despite the market... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Signs of improvement in EM trade data The most recent Emerging Market (EM) trade data show that export growth accelerated in July. What’s more, on the basis of the latest leading indicators, a further improvement in EM exports looks... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rise in capital spending takes edge off deficit concerns An increase in capital expenditure across the region over the past few years means that the general widening in budget deficits may not be as worrying as the headline figures suggest. But there are... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policymakers step back from foreign exchange intervention One of the more surprising features of August’s EM currency sell-off is how little policymakers in the worst-affected countries intervened in foreign exchange markets to try to stop it. In the case of... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fed tapering unlikely to put region’s external positions at risk The turbulence in financial markets over the past few months has raised concerns about how emerging markets will perform as global monetary conditions tighten. In the case of Africa, current account... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Five years on – what next for the emerging world? In the five years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, emerging economies have accounted for three-quarters of global growth. This has fed expectations that the emerging world can continue to... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Little threat of a systemic EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
