Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI falls to four-year low Our EM-wide PMI estimate suggests that conditions in emerging market manufacturing are now the weakest they have been since early 2009. 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Great Deceleration” has long since begun Recent talk of a looming “Great Deceleration” in EM growth has tended to miss the crucial fact that the emerging world has already been slowing for several years. In this Update we summarise five key... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Signs of a turnaround in South African manufacturing The South African manufacturing PMI rose to a five-month high in July, pointing to a modest recovery inthe sector. But while this comes as welcome good news, problems in the domestic economy mean... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: interest rate hikes delayed, not abandoned Rising inflation and a weakening currency means that interest rates in Ghana are still likely to rise again before the end of the year, despite the Central Bank’s decision to keep rates on hold today... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Calm after the storm Financial markets in Africa were relatively calm in July following the wide-scale sell-off in June. Currencies, bonds and equities have rallied, although bond yields remain above the lows seen at the... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Central banks call an end to Africa’s easing cycle The main message from this month’s monetary policy meetings in Africa is that the easing cycle that began in several countries in mid-2012 has probably now come to an end. But at the same time we do... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Public debt levels unlikely to rise sharply The twin tailwinds of debt relief programmes from Western governments and high commodity prices have helped to dramatically reduce public debt levels in sub-Saharan Africa over the past few years. But... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Glimmers of hope? Our GDP Tracker suggests that after a sharp slowdown at the start of the year, EM growth ticked up in May. Evidence of a possible turnaround is strongest in Emerging Europe, and weakest in Emerging... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: downside inflation surprise unlikely to last South African inflation unexpectedly slowed in June, as muted demand pressures more than offset the effects of a weak rand. Nevertheless, we still expect inflation to accelerate in the coming months... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt in turmoil (again) Egypt’s “second revolution” has made the outlook for the Arab world’s most populous nation highly uncertain. The economy is already extremely fragile – growth is sluggish, unemployment is high and the... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: naira weakness makes interest rate cuts unlikely The weakness of the naira over the past few months has made it increasingly unlikely that the Central Bank of Nigeria will cut interest rates this year. We now expect the policy rate to remain on hold... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currency sell-off unlikely to prompt a wave of rate hikes Lingering fears over the impact of a tapering of asset purchases by the US Fed have seen emerging market currencies continue to weaken over the past month – countries with current account deficits... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak rand to prevent interest rate cuts The ongoing weakness of the South African rand means that, despite the sluggish pace of economic growth, there is little room for the Reserve Bank to loosen monetary policy. We have taken out our... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Positive growth outlook masks key country differences We expect sub-Saharan Africa to remain one of the world’s better performing regions over the next few years. But this masks some key differences between countries, and indeed some economies will... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf aid not a long-term solution to Egypt’s problems The aid that Gulf states have granted to Egypt since the ousting of President Morsi should be sufficient to cover the country’s external financing requirement for almost a year. Accordingly, the... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fears of overheating in Ghana are overdone, for now A pick-up in GDP growth and a rise in inflation, against a backdrop of hefty twin deficits, have led to concerns that Ghana’s economy is overheating. But while a number of economic vulnerabilities are... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
