Emerging Markets Economics Update Construction points to weak EM investment Construction has started the year on a weak note across the emerging world and particularly in those EMs that most need to raise their investment rates, notably Brazil and Russia. This adds weight to... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Will Rwanda continue to outperform? We expect a fall in agricultural commodity prices and a reduction in aid flows to lead to slower growth in Rwanda over the next couple of years. Nevertheless, increasing foreign direct investment into... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's government finances need to be brought under control Ongoing political uncertainty has led to a sharp deterioration in the Egyptian government’s finances. The measures required to put them on a more sustainable footing are politically sensitive. But... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing downturn deepens The 25% year-on-year rise in equity prices in advanced economies, combined with rising property prices in some countries, should provide a boost to household consumption. However, we suspect the... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing EM government debt dynamics High public debt and large budget deficits mean that the governments of Egypt, Jordan and Hungary need to tighten fiscal policy. Moreover, despite appearing healthy, the public finances of some... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturers continue to struggle South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained at a weak level in May, and a combination of sluggish external demand and domestic structural constraints means the sector is likely to continue struggling in... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Too early to say Egypt’s economy has turned the corner Although Egypt’s headline PMI rose sharply in May to reach its highest level in six months, we would caution against reading this as a sign that the economy has turned the corner. Meanwhile, PMIs for... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Regional slowdown masks key nuances Data released over the past month show that GDP growth slowed in both South Africa and Nigeria in Q1, but this masks important differences in the fortunes of the region’s two largest economies. In... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs continue to lose steam Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Q1 may have slumped to a three-and-a-half year low, having been hit by a dip in global trade and structural problems in the BRIC economies. 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisian dinar falls on back of IMF deal The Tunisian dinar has been one of the worst performing EM currencies over the past couple of months. Meanwhile, equity markets in the Gulf have continued to rally. 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand in freefall The South African rand has collapsed in the past month, falling by over 9% against the US$. The magnitude of the fall means that the currency may now be somewhat undervalued, but we expect it to... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Demographics will not determine future of EMs Healthy demographics can certainly play a role in supporting growth in emerging markets. However, the future performance of places such as India, the Middle East and Africa, where demographics are... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African GDP growth slumps in Q1 South African GDP growth was slower than expected in Q1, and the outlook for the coming quarters is not very promising either. Nevertheless, the fresh sell-off in the rand leaves the Reserve Bank with... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker growth keeps EM central banks in easing mode In aggregate terms, EM monetary policy has been loosened over the past six months. But there has been a big difference between the actions of central banks in each EM region. In Europe and, more... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: rates on hold as rand plummets The collapse in the rand over the past week or so means that, despite the continued weakness of South Africa’s economy, there is little room for the Reserve Bank to loosen monetary policy. In fact, it... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What next for the EM recovery? The recovery in emerging market (EM) growth during the second half of 2012 has faltered since the start of this year. This is due in large part to renewed weakness in the BRIC economies, which we... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
