Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt and the IMF: still no breakthrough Political deadlock in Egypt has placed another obstacle in the way of negotiations with the IMF. A team from the Fund left Cairo earlier this month without an agreement in place, apparently as a... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak rand to provide limited relief for South African manufacturers Growth in South Africa’s manufacturing sector appears to have stagnated in the first quarter of 2013, but some policymakers have suggested that production could soon pick up as a weaker rand helps to... 24th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China slowdown opens the door for new EM growth stars Recent evidence of weaker economic activity in China and falling global commodity prices supports our view that overall emerging market (EM) growth will disappoint in the years ahead. But while... 24th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Effects of a Chinese slowdown to vary across the region An economic slowdown in China is likely to drag on growth in sub-Saharan Africa, but the more important point is that the effects will vary from country-to-country. Zambia is probably the most... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia's IMF deal underlines need for political consensus Tunisia’s IMF deal is a crucial step to helping the economy out of its post-revolution slump. But the agreement also underlines the need for political consensus in the Arab Spring countries in order... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRICs continue to struggle The recent weakness of the economic data across the emerging world has been exacerbated by calendar effects. Even so, our EM GDP Tracker reveals a broader trend of weakening activity, particularly in... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How would a slump in gold prices affect South Africa? The sharp drop in gold prices over the past week or so has led to a sell-off in South Africa’s stock market, but the sector’s declining importance to the overall economy means that, so long as further... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for the MENA region? The recent fall in oil prices is unlikely to unduly trouble the Gulf States. Prices need to drop much further and stay there before they run fiscal deficits, and even then large savings and low debt... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Consumer spending starts to soften EM consumer spending has been one of the bright spots in the global economy in recent years, supported by healthy wage growth, low unemployment and loose monetary policy. But retail sales growth... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: inflation to breach target, but only temporarily South African inflation is likely to rise above the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range in the near term, possibly as early as this month. Nevertheless, any spike should prove temporary, and inflation is... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Introducing the Capital Economics Risk Indicator Although emerging markets (EMs) have experienced rapid growth over the past 30 years, this period has been punctuated by occasional economic and financial crises. These have typically been preceded by... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus A closer look at South Africa's current account vulnerabilities The sharp widening of South Africa’s current account deficit in 2012 has grabbed most of the headlines, but the more worrying issue is the deterioration in the quality of capital inflows that are... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery loses its shine The recovery of Emerging Market exports has continued in recent months, but forward looking indicators suggest that they will soften over the course of Q2. What’s more, a big divergence remains in the... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African mining rebounds, but still faces headwinds The strong rebound in South African mining output in the early part of 2013 suggests that the sector made a decent contribution to overall GDP growth in Q1. But nevertheless, the sector still faces a... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Recovery falters The latest data suggest that the EM recovery may already be running into headwinds. With policy set to remain loose in most economies, EM growth is probably not about to slow again and will far... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Which countries are set to benefit from increasing FDI? Inflows of foreign direct investment to sub-Saharan Africa have increased markedly over the past decade or so, with growth being strongest in countries that have a) a large endowment of natural... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
