Africa Economics Update Is China helping or hindering South Africa? China’s rapid development and integration into the global economy has had important effects on a number of countries across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In this Africa Watch, we take a closer look at... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM recovery falters Our EM GDP Tracker provides tentative evidence that the recent emerging market recovery is losing steam. Growth slowed slightly in Emerging Asia and Latin America in January, and continues to be very... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Strong domestic demand to help Africa outperform The growth outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains good. Admittedly, the region will not be immune from global headwinds, particularly from the ongoing recession in Europe. Export demand may also... 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Divergence in export performance deepens The recovery in Emerging Market exports continues to be concentrated in Asia. By contrast, exports from other EM regions, and commodity producers in particular, remain disappointing. 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the underperformance of EM equities set to continue? While the recent underperformance of emerging market (EM) equities has been surprising given the strength of developed market (DM) equities, we think it may continue for a while yet. 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rate cutting cycle has probably ended The Central Bank of Kenya kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 9.50% today and, with inflation having bottomed out and the current account deficit still a cause for concern, we think this marks... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The new "Growth Stars" - which EMs are set to shine? As the BRICs enter a period of slower growth, new emerging market “growth stars” will come to the fore. We are particularly upbeat on the economies of sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia. But... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Kenyatta's victory On the face of it, an earlier-than-expected victory for Uhuru Kenyatta in Kenya’s presidential election has reduced the risk of public unrest and political uncertainty that had previously threatened... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What is driving the weakness of the South African rand? Over the past decade, fluctuations in the South African rand seem to have been driven primarily by changes in global risk appetite. But while risk appetite has improved over the past six months, the... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about EM central bank independence? Fears that politicians in the emerging world are trying to tighten their grip over monetary policy are generally wide of the mark. But Hungary is a notable exception. 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets holding their nerve as Kenya delays election results Kenya’s parliamentary and presidential elections have so far passed relatively peacefully, helping to keep markets calm amid news that the results have been delayed due to technical problems. But the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: 2013 budget doesn't fully restore fiscal credibility We doubt that Ghana’s fiscal deficit will fall as quickly as the Finance Ministry seems to expect in its 2013 Budget Statement. Coupled with the fact that growth is now picking up, this means that... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery stutters The latest PMI surveys suggest that the recovery in emerging world manufacturing has lost a little steam recently. Part of the weakness can be explained by the effects of the Chinese New Year, which... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturers still facing big challenges The South African manufacturing PMI ticked up in February, but the overall sluggishness of export demand and problems in the domestic supply chain means the sector still faces significant challenges... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Crumbling BRICs - will the largest EMs regain their vigour? The recent slowdowns in the BRIC economies are largely structural in nature and so are unlikely to be reversed without wide-ranging economic reform. Slower growth in the BRICs is likely to shave half... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Non-oil sector driving Nigeria's economy The Nigerian economy returned to trend growth in Q4 on account of a strong performance in the non-oil sector. Nevertheless, with the oil sector continuing to drag on headline growth and inflation now... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
