Africa Economics Update Nigeria resists government pressure to cut rates The Central Bank of Nigeria resisted government pressure to cut interest rates this afternoon, but we suspect that a combination of below-trend growth and sub-10% inflation will pave the way for... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation outlook benign As the distortions surrounding Chinese New Year have fallen out of the data, the underlying picture across Emerging Markets is one of weak price pressures. Looking ahead, there are few signs that... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumer spending unlikely to stage strong recovery Over-invoicing by exporters over the last five months has significantly inflated the apparent strength of overseas demand. While official customs data show a surge in exports, this is not evident in... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Should we worry about the region’s current account trends? Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have seen their current account surpluses narrow or their deficits widen over the past few years, raising concerns that the region is vulnerable to balance of... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests small pick-up in Q1 Following today’s release of retail sales data for March, the Capital Economics South Africa GDP Tracker suggests that the economy picked up a little pace in the first quarter of this year. We think... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Growth slowdown prompts further easing Economic activity across the emerging world looks to have moderated since the start of the year, with our GDP tracker pointing to weaker growth in Emerging Europe, Emerging Asia and Latin America... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Q1 slowdown reinforces case for rate cuts The slowdown in Nigerian GDP growth in Q1 was due in large part to the oil sector, but more importantly from the point of view of monetary policy, growth in the non-oil sector also cooled. With... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Exporters starting to struggle The latest trade data provide further evidence that Emerging Market exporters are starting to struggle. But while exports from Emerging Asia have continued to grow (albeit at a slower rate), exports... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia to remain a regional outperformer The tailwind of high and rising copper prices is unlikely to continue supporting growth in Zambia over the next few years. But improving governance levels and increasing infrastructure spending... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: where do the risks lie? Total debt in emerging markets (EMs) is relatively low by international standards. But the history of EMs suggests that crises often occur when credit grows rapidly for several years rather than... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rates unlikely to fall further The Central Bank of Kenya cut its benchmark interest rate by a larger-than-expected 100bp to 8.50% today but, with inflation having bottomed out and the current account deficit still a cause for... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What next for inflation across the region? Inflation is likely to slow across West Africa in the near term, meaning that interest rate cuts are still a possibility. By contrast, inflation is likely to accelerate in East and South Africa. In... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery fades as BRICs lose steam The April manufacturing PMIs add to evidence that the emerging market (EM) recovery has lost pace in recent months. The slowdown has affected most EM regions, but the BRIC economies seem to have been... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturing makes a better start to Q2 South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for April suggests the sector may have rebounded a little at the start of Q2 having stagnated in Q1. But a combination of sluggish external demand and domestic... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industrial boom a mostly Asian story Industrial output in the emerging world has increased by a remarkable 30% in the past five years. Yet impressive growth at an aggregate level masks a wide variation in the performance of individual... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update More countries joining the eurobond rush Sub-Saharan Africa’s eurobond markets hit the headlines again in April when Rwanda became the latest country to issue foreign currency debt. And with much of the region continuing to enjoy low yields... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
