A look ahead to the South African elections

The key political event in sub-Saharan Africa this year is the elections for the presidency and national assembly in South Africa. Although it seems likely that Jacob Zuma will be re-elected as president and the ruling ANC party will retain power in the national assembly, there are a number of other important factors for investors to look out for. The good news is that a large fiscal splurge before the elections is now unlikely. But despite the fact that the ANC’s manifesto (released last weekend) outlined reforms in key areas including education and infrastructure, the prospects for longer-term structural reform after the elections remain slim.