Non-oil economies to see growth converge with the Gulf

Following a tumultuous three years since the Arab Spring uprisings, we expect a recovery to finally get underway in the MENA region’s non-oil producers over the next year or so. Growth should be supported by the strengthening global economy and – in Egypt – Gulf-funded stimulus packages. As a result, we think that the gap in performance between the non-oil economies and the Gulf – which looks set for another year of steady but unspectacular growth – should narrow. All in all, we expect regional GDP growth of 3-3.5% in 2014-15.