Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF deals and Gulf aid spare MENA’s non-oil producers In spite of their large current account deficits, the MENA region’s non-oil economies have stayed out of the spotlight during the recent turmoil in EM financial markets thanks, it seems, to IMF... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Economic fallout from market turmoil should be contained It’s too early to say with any certainty what impact the current turmoil in financial markets will have on EM growth. But while we expect the countries that have been hit hardest in recent weeks –... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Taking stock of the SARB’s surprise The dust is still settling on the SARB’s unexpected decision to hike interest rates yesterday, with the rand strengthening slightly against the US$ so far today. Nevertheless, the currency is still... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: surprise rate hike fails to shore up the rand The South African Reserve Bank became the latest EM central bank to respond to the turmoil in currency markets by hiking interest rates today. However, if the decision to tighten was aimed at shoring... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turkey & India likely to be the exception rather than the rule The decisions by Turkey and India yesterday to raise interest rates have inevitably led to speculation that market turbulence will force policymakers in other parts of the emerging world to follow... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian financial markets rally on hopes for political stability The Egyptian stock market has rallied in recent days amid growing optimism about the prospects for political stability. The recently approved constitution paves the way for elections to take place... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: assessing the impact of the mining sector strikes The latest outbreak of strikes has cast a spotlight back on the problems in South Africa’s mining sector. Although it is difficult to predict how events will pan out from here, the disruption of... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack MENA financial markets shrug off broader EM concerns The MENA region’s financial markets have come through the latest bout of turmoil in EM markets relatively unscathed. Most equity markets have dropped back, although their losses have been small when... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are we seeing a re-run of the summer sell-off? The sell-off in emerging market (EM) assets following the Fed’s decision to taper its asset purchases in December has prompted comparisons with last summer’s turmoil. But while the latest data from... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand plunges to five-year low The South African rand has slumped to a five-year low over the past couple of days – in the process breaking through our end-year forecast of 11/$, which itself had been at the bottom end of consensus... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation likely to remain sticky in the “fragile five” The sharp falls in the currencies of the “fragile five” economies over the past half a year may cause import price inflation to rise over the next few months, particularly in Turkey and, to a lesser... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Non-oil economies to see growth converge with the Gulf Following a tumultuous three years since the Arab Spring uprisings, we expect a recovery to finally get underway in the MENA region’s non-oil producers over the next year or so. Growth should be... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN governor fires warning shot over fiscal loosening The Central Bank of Nigeria kept interest rates on hold today but, significantly, Governor Lamido Sanusi struck a notably more hawkish tone than has previously been the case in the accompanying press... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of Egypt's new constitution The approval of Egypt’s new constitution marks a key political milestone, paving the way for fresh elections to take place in the coming months. However, these could lead to a renewed flare-up in... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds fire, for now Despite the fall in inflation in December, the Central Bank of Egypt decided to keep interest rates on hold at its meeting today. We think it’s unlikely that today’s decision marks the end of the... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q1 2014) EM consumer spending grew at its slowest pace since 2009 last year. However, the latest data suggest that spending has started to pick up in recent months and, while a significant upturn seems... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
