Africa Economics Update Weak rand to push South African inflation higher South African inflation breached the upper bound of the SARB’s target range in July, and the effects of a weak rand means it is likely to accelerate a little further in the coming months. This will... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three questions (and answers) about the EM currency sell-off The renewed sell-off in EM currencies has cast a fresh spotlight on vulnerabilities in the emerging world. In this Update we answer three key questions that have been raised by recent market moves. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt sinks further into crisis, Gulf’s prospects brightening The outbreak of violence between security forces and protestors this month has sent Egypt spiralling deeper into crisis. It’s extremely tricky to predict how eventswill unfold from here on. In the... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: how is the wage negotiation season progressing? Agreements have now been reached in more than half of the sectors holding talks during South Africa’s current wage negotiation season. However, a lack of agreement in the mining sector means the risk... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Signs of improvement in China and Brazil The past month has brought some hope that economic conditions in two of the four BRICs – Brazil and China – might be improving. In China, data on trade, industrial production and investment have all... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Regional growth likely to have picked up in Q2 GDP data due to be released over the next few weeks are likely to show that economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa picked up in the second quarter of this year. But while regional prospects as a whole... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What does the “services revolution” mean for EMs? Improvements in technology are making it increasingly easy to trade services. This has led some commentators to argue that services can become a more viable driver of EM growth, allowing EMs to break... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economy struggling even before the “second revolution” The latest Egyptian activity data suggest that the economy was suffering even before the armed forces ousted President Morsi at the start of last month. Needless to say, growth has slowed even further... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: naira devaluation on the cards Our forecasts for a fall in oil prices, coupled with a relatively high rate of domestic inflation, suggest that pressure on the Nigerian naira is likely to build over the next year or so. We think... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests pick-up in Q2 The Capital Economics South Africa GDP Tracker suggests that the economy picked up pace in Q2, with annualised GDP growth accelerating to around 3.0% q/q, from 0.9% q/q in Q1. 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM trade steadies after first half slowdown There are some signs in the latest EM trade data that the slowdown in exports witnessed over the first half of this year has eased. Even so, export growth remains broadly flat in year-on-year terms in... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs likely to tread carefully with energy subsidy reform High global energy prices have contributed to rising subsidy spending across much of the emerging world. Some EMs have already started to cut back on subsidies. But fears of inflation and civil unrest... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s “second revolution” takes a heavy toll on the economy July’s PMIs suggest that the Egyptian economy has weakened further against the backdrop of the “secondrevolution”. Meanwhile, non-oil sectors in the Gulf continue to grow at a robust pace. 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI falls to four-year low Our EM-wide PMI estimate suggests that conditions in emerging market manufacturing are now the weakest they have been since early 2009. 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Great Deceleration” has long since begun Recent talk of a looming “Great Deceleration” in EM growth has tended to miss the crucial fact that the emerging world has already been slowing for several years. In this Update we summarise five key... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Signs of a turnaround in South African manufacturing The South African manufacturing PMI rose to a five-month high in July, pointing to a modest recovery inthe sector. But while this comes as welcome good news, problems in the domestic economy mean... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
