Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exporters remain under pressure The latest batch of EM trade data suggests that exporters continue to struggle in the face of slowing demand from their major global trade partners. Moreover, there isn’t much in the forward-looking... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Some tentative signs of stabilisation Yields of dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds have surged since late May, reflecting increases in both underlying US Treasury yields and credit spreads. But while Treasury yields have... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s slowdown: which EMs are most exposed? Last week we published for the first time our forecasts for 2015 GDP growth in China, which put us right at the bottom end of consensus expectations. For the rest of the emerging world, the effects of... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: decision to hold rates signals end of easing cycle With inflation likely to accelerate over the next few months and the current account deficit still a cause for concern, we think the Central Bank of Kenya’s decision to keep its benchmark interest... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa's rigid labour market to hold back growth The latest round of biennial economy-wide wage negotiations in South Africa could be the catalyst for a renewed flare-up in labour unrest. But they are also likely to cast a spotlight on the country’s... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The turning tide - life after QE Emerging economies are much better positioned than in the past to withstand policy tightening by the Fed and few are at risk of an immediate crisis. Nonetheless, we are entering a new era for emerging... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The economic implications of Egypt's second revolution It goes without saying that there’s a vast amount of uncertainty about how events will develop in Egypt. But the economy looks more fragile now than at any time since the first Arab Spring revolution... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The EM winners and losers from the shale revolution There’s a vast amount of uncertainty about the potential for developing countries to follow the US and Canada in exploiting their shale reserves. But if they can, it could turn a large number of... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs fall again, but Emerging Europe bucks the trend June’s PMIs suggest that the downturn in emerging market manufacturing is gathering pace, with our EM-wide PMI estimate dropping to its lowest level for nearly a year. Producers in Asia and Latin... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Weak growth even before the crisis June’s PMIs fell across the whole of the MENA region. But they do not take into account the political unrest that has flared up once again in Egypt and could weigh heavily on the economy over the... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ugandan easing cycle has probably ended Given that credit growth remains sluggish, we wouldn’t rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts in Uganda over the next few months. But on balance, a combination of a pick-up in food... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's growth on shaky foundations The most surprising feature of the raft of Q1 GDP data released in the region over the past few days was that Egypt’s economy has continued to grow, despite the country’s political turmoil. However... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI improves but conditions remain tough South Africa’s manufacturing PMI picked-up in June, suggesting that, having contracted in Q1, the sector made a positive contribution to overall GDP growth in Q2. However, a combination of sluggish... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Economic impact of US Fed tapering likely to be limited Financial markets in Africa have taken a hit over the past month following signals from the US Fed that it intends to taper its asset purchases under QE3. Nevertheless, we think that the economic... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market turmoil unlikely to cause EMs to slow via wealth effects While at first sight it does look like the recent falls in emerging market (EM) equities could cause growth to slow via “wealth effects”, we think there are only limited grounds for concern. 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slows to weakest pace since global financial crisis Our GDP Tracker suggests that the EM slowdown has continued into the start of Q2. Although all three main regions have reported disappointing growth, there are signs that the downturn in Emerging... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
