Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumers go their separate ways Strong employment growth, coupled with favourable credit dynamics, should ensure that consumer spending continues to outperform in Emerging Asia over the coming years. By contrast, consumption looks... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Is the talk of a return to "original sin" justified? Fears that some African countries are returning to a period of “original sin” - characterised by excessive borrowing in foreign currency - appear somewhat premature. External debt levels are far lower... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Major EM regions all now reporting stronger growth The ongoing recovery in emerging world manufacturing looks increasingly broad based. The PMIs for Latin America and Emerging Asia have risen rapidly since mid-2012 and the latest figures point to a... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Inflation taking divergent paths across the region Inflation remains lower in both east and South Africa compared to west Africa, but a combination of slowing inflation in west Africa and the fact that central banks here set higher inflation targets... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation looks to have bottomed out Having dropped to a near-three-year low, EM inflation looks to have now bottomed out. Inflation is likely to rise further in the near term due to strengthening demandside pressures and increases in... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: trade deficit keeps pressure on the rand South Africa recorded its first ever December trade deficit in 2012, adding to concerns over its deteriorating current account position. This is likely to ensure that the rand remains weak over the... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM recovery continues Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that the emerging market recovery is strengthening and that growth accelerated in the final months of last year. Asia and Latin America are still leading the recovery, but... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Rand plunges despite broad rally in EM currencies The South African rand has suffered a large sell-off over the past month, taking it below 9.00/US$ and leaving it at its lowest level against the US dollar in almost four years. Given that... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Equities and currencies take divergent paths This is the first edition of our new monthly Africa Markets Monitor. The purpose of this publication is to analyse major developments in local markets over the past month, and to give an update on our... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Bright start to the year Emerging markets are in a sweet spot at the moment. Economic growth appears to have accelerated towards 5% y/y in Q4 of last year, led by a rebound in the Chinese economy. At the same time, aside from... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African Reserve Bank faces difficult balancing act Concerns over the effects of a weakening rand on inflation will continue to leave the South African Reserve Bank with little room to loosen policy in order to support growth over the coming months. 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery continues, but remains fragile The latest data show further strengthening in emerging market exports towards the end of 2012. However, the pace of export growth remains weak by historic standards. 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Room for relatively small rate cuts in Nigeria Slowing inflation and sub-trend growth in Nigeria mean that interest rate cuts are likely this year, but concerns over fiscal profligacy and a weakening currency limits the room for significant easing... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will benefit from rising labour costs in China? China’s low-end exports are now losing global market share. Rapidly rising labour costs in China mean this trend is likely to continue. Although many countries can now compete with China on labour... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Solid but unspectacular outlook for South African retail sector Growth in South African retail sales beat consensus expectations in November. But with consumer confidence falling due to rising inflation and fears over job security, the outlook for private... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI slumps again The slump in South Africa’s PMI reading for December indicates that the manufacturing sector continued to feel the effects of weak demand from key export destinations, as well as constraints in the... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
