Africa Economics Update Ghana elections unlikely to prompt shift in policy direction The final presidential debate before elections in Ghana next month revealed that neither of the two main candidates are likely to oversee a radical shift away from market-friendly policies... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Can emerging economies get rich from commodities? History suggests that an abundance of natural resources makes broader economic development difficult for emerging markets (EMs). This is one reason why we believe that the non-commodity EMs of Asia... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: growth to remain subdued in 2013 South African GDP growth was worse than expected in Q3, and the outlook for the coming quarters is not very promising either. With strikes continuing to affect the mining sector, and signs of a... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation slows, strong pick-up unlikely ahead Emerging Market (EM) inflation slowed in October. Even if inflation does pick up again in the coming months as a result of past increases in commodity prices, the big picture is that any rise is... 23rd November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa holds rates, easing to come next year The South African Reserve Bank kept its benchmark repo rate on hold at 5.00% today, but the prospect of subdued growth and easing inflation suggests that a rate cut is likely in 2013. 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are emerging market foreign exchange reserves adequate? Foreign exchange reserves in many emerging economies have fallen over the last year, leaving some exposed to a sharp slowdown in export revenues or to a sudden stop in capital inflows. Venezuela is... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update East African energy boom comes with risks Discoveries of giant gas fields off the coast of East Africa in the past few months are likely to have a very positive impact on the economies of Mozambique and Tanzania. But while both countries... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Nigeria likely to cut rates next year The Central Bank of Nigeria kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today, but the outlook for slowing inflation and sub-trend growth means that monetary easing is likely to come onto the agenda in 2013... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM currencies are cheap and which are expensive? Within the emerging world, the currencies of Russia, Brazil, Egypt, Venezuela and Turkey look most overvalued. By contrast, the currencies of most Asian economies, including China, look undervalued. 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests marked slowdown in Q3 The Capital Economics South Africa GDP Tracker suggests that the economy slowed sharply in the third quarter of this year. We think annualised growth dropped to 1.5% q/q, from 3.2% q/q in Q2. This... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account deficits still a source of EM vulnerability Large current account deficits and a reliance on short-term capital flows make a number of emerging economies vulnerable to a deterioration in the external funding environment. Turkey is most exposed... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Signs of stabilisation in Q3 Emerging market (EM) GDP growth appears to have stabilised in Q3. Our GDP tracker suggests that output expanded by about 4.0% y/y, down only slightly from 4.2% y/y in Q2. There have been some positive... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Bank of Ghana to keep rates on hold throughout 2013 The Bank of Ghana kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 15.00% today and, with inflation decelerating and concerns over the cedi easing, we expect rates to remain unchanged throughout 2013. 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Elections take centre stage The recent peaceful transitions of power following elections in Senegal and Zambia demonstrate that the threat of voting-related violence in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been receding in the past few... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Subsidy cuts likely to push Egypt inflation higher The latest data from Egypt paint a disappointing picture of weakening growth and rising inflation. And with subsidy cuts and tax hikes expected as conditions to any agreement with the IMF, headline... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging market vehicle sales hint at consumer slowdown The latest vehicle sales data suggest that emerging market consumer spending has taken a turn for the worse. Moreover, the fact that vehicle sales growth has outstripped production in Latin America... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
