Africa Economics Update South African rand still has further to fall The South African rand has sold-off sharply in the past few days, but we think a combination of domestic political unrest, a challenging external environment, and a widening current account deficit... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How much scope do emerging markets have to loosen policy? Despite recent policy easing by the US Fed and the ECB, we expect global growth will continue to disappoint over the next couple of years. Against this gloomy background, prospects for emerging... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What is economic cost of South Africa’s mining unrest? It is still too early to calculate the full economic impact of labour unrest in South Africa, but our initial estimates suggest that it could knock around 1.5%-pts off GDP in the second half of 2012. 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update QE3: big risk or damp squib? There is growing concern among emerging market (EM) policymakers that a third dose of QE from the Fed will stoke hot money inflows to the developing world, and open up a new front in the so-called... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market manufacturers still struggling The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 13.00% today and, while theeasing cycle still has further to run, we think the pace of rate cuts may slow in the months ahead. 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Pace of monetary easing to slow in Uganda The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 13.00% today and, while the easing cycle still has further to run, we think the pace of rate cuts may slow in the months ahead. 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturing continues to struggle On the face of it, South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for September appears consistent with a contraction in GDP in Q3. And while we would be hesitant to read too much into one month’s figures, the... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak Q2 growth to prompt further rate cuts in Kenya Weaker-than-expected second quarter growth in Kenya reinforces the case for further rate cuts at the central bank’s next meeting in November. While we expect a slight pick-up in the second half of the... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Shifting down the gears We expect emerging market (EM) growth to slow to around 4.5% in 2013, with only a modest pick-up to 5.0% in 2014. This would be some way below average growth of 6.1% seen since 2000. What’s more... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Growth holding up amid global headwinds The economies of sub-Saharan Africa have so far proved resilient in the face of mounting global headwinds. Q2 GDP data released over the past month have shown a pick-up in growth in several of the... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan growth to pick up but vulnerabilities persist Q2 GDP data for Kenya, due to be released this week, are likely to show a pick-up in growth from Q1, and we expect further acceleration in the second half of the year. However, the country remains... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rate cut still possible in November Although the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept its benchmark repo rate on hold at 5.00% today, we think that rate cuts could be back on the agenda as early as November this year. 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Widening current account deficit adds to concerns in S. Africa The recent sharp widening of South Africa’s current account deficit adds to mounting concerns over the direction of the economy and is another reason to expect the rand to weaken over the next six... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Nigeria still in wait and see mode The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today and is likely to stay in wait and see mode over the coming months as the effects of a spike in global food prices feed... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Non-oil sector spurs modest pick-up in Nigerian growth The Nigerian economy picked up pace in the second quarter of this year, but problems in the oil sector mean that it is still growing below its potential. Nonetheless, with inflation remaining above... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Food inflation: no need to worry just yet The recent spike in global agricultural prices is likely to feed through to a pick-up in food inflation in most African economies in early 2013. But the shock to food inflation should be much smaller... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
