Africa Economics Focus South Africa set to remain a regional underperformer Recent events in South Africa’s mining sector, while tragic, are also symptomatic of wider economic problems that are likely to mean the country falls short of achieving its significant growth... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will the rebound in the platinum price be sustained? South African labour disputes have caused platinum prices to rebound. We think that weak demand will cause prices to fall back by around 10% before the end of this year. However, recent events have... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus A deal with the IMF will mark a turning point for Egypt The visit of Christine Lagarde to Egypt today is perhaps the clearest signal yet that the country is close to signing a deal with the IMF. If this materialises before the end of the year (as the... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The tide could be turning in Egypt’s favour Reports that Christine Lagarde will visit Egypt next week and that the country may seek more funds from the IMF than had been initially thought are positive developments. This follows the news that... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian president fighting for civilian rule In a surprising move, the Egyptian President decided to sack the country’s two top-ranking generals and cancelled an earlier declaration by the military council that gave it wide legislative powers... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) Egyptian inflation fell to a six-year low in July as price pressures in virtually all the components of the consumer price basket eased. 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation back on investors’ agenda Today’s data from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) showing that foreign currency reserves fell in July serve as a reminder that devaluation of the pound remains a real and likely prospect. 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF approves funding for Morocco and Jordan The decision by the IMF to approve funding for Morocco and Jordan will reduce the risks of a balance of payments crisis in the immediate term. But both economies remain fragile. While Morocco is... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s new cabinet unlikely to herald radical shift in policy The much-anticipated announcement of the new Egyptian cabinet was a bit of a damp squib. Admittedly, the technocratic nature of the new administration has calmed fears of an Islamist-dominated... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rates on hold as balance of payments troubles persist The decision by Egypt’s Central Bank (CBE) to keep interest rates on hold was unsurprising. Although the economy is weak and inflationary pressures subdued, political instability will keep pressure on... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s new Prime Minister won’t ease market fears The surprising appointment of Dr. Hisham Kandil as Egypt’s new Prime Minister is unlikely to calm nerves in the financial markets. For a start, he lacks the economic credentials that some were hoping... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: economy could make or break the new president’s tenure The election of Dr. Mohamed Mursi as Egypt’s first democratically-elected president last month represented a significant step in the country’s transition. But as we expected, tensions between the new... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egyptian inflation fell to a nine-month low in June on the back of weaker food inflation. Nonetheless, this is unlikely to pave the way for looser monetary policy – at least until the political... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pressures on the Egyptian pound mount Provisional data from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) showing no improvement in foreign currency reserves in June – as had been hoped – will keep pressure on the pound. With political conditions still... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How vulnerable is South Africa to the euro-crisis? Compared to 2008-09, South Africa is now less vulnerable to financial contagion as a result of a fresh shock to the global economy, most notably from a break-up of the euro-zone. But at the same time... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Investors too complacent on political risks Investor concerns over the risk of a disorderly devaluation of the pound are beginning to fade on the back of fresh hopes that the new Egyptian president will pursue an agreement with the IMF. However... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
