Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Good news in Tunisia will probably not last The pick-up in Tunisia’s annual GDP growth rate from a of 0.4% y/y in Q4 2011 to an impressive of 4.8% y/y in Q1 2012 is flattered by base effects stemming from the collapse in output this time last... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Egypt’s presidential elections Today marks the first day in Egypt’s presidential elections with the opinion polls and expatriate votes showing contradictory results. Regardless of who wins, two outstanding issues remain from an... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economy disappoints in Q1 The pick-up in Egypt’s GDP growth from 0.4% y/y in Q4 to 5.2% y/y in Q1 was flattered by favourable base effects. Indeed, on a seasonally adjusted basis, we estimate that output contracted by 1.4% q/q... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How has Egypt’s economy shaped up in Q1? Monthly activity data suggest that the Egyptian economy may have grown by up to 10% y/y in Q1. But this will have been helped by favourable base effects, given the almost 5% y/y contraction in output... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Time running out for Egypt to secure IMF deal Recent comments from Egypt’s Finance Minister suggest that the country could receive help from the IMF next month. But with the external environment deteriorating sharply over the past few weeks... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egypt’s headline inflation dropped in April on the back of a fall in housing and utilities inflation. Meanwhile, food inflation remained unchanged. 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (May) Fresh hopes that some equity markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) had turned a corner at the start of 2012 have quickly faded. Instead, attention has turned to Islamic bond markets... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Increase in Egypt’s FX reserves unlikely to be sustained The increase in Egypt’s foreign currency reserves in April is good news but it is unlikely to last. The fact is that last month’s rise is very small. What’s more, it is largely due to a one-off... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Constitution key for Egypt’s new president Today marks the beginning of campaigning for Egypt’s presidential elections. While most commentators are focusing on the likely winner, we think that the definition of the exact powers of Egypt’s next... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Search for safe havens set to resume We think tougher times lie ahead for risky assets. Enthusiasm for equities is likely to be curbed by a turn in the US profit cycle, an absence of additional unconventional monetary stimulus from the... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: hopes fading for a quick deal with the IMF The decision by the Egyptian parliament to reject the government’s economic plan highlights a growing rift between the Muslim Brotherhood and the military-appointed administration. Worryingly, this... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack G7 to the rescue? The recent announcement by the G7’s Deauville Partnership that it will soon deliver on its earlier promise of a $20 billion ‘Arab Spring’ package to Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and Jordan, could... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook US recovery, European recession We expect world GDP to grow by around 3% both this year and next. The US economy is set to recover steadily but the euro-zone recession will deepen, causing the sovereign debt crisis to flare up again... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: political chaos raises risk of major economic crisis Various events over the past couple of days have thrown Egypt’s fragile political transition into disarray. These developments raise fresh doubts over the country’s ability to secure external... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Markets Monitor (Apr.) Consistent with trends in other emerging markets, most of the Middle East’s stock markets have dropped back from the highs reached earlier this year. While Egypt’s fall is perhaps the most striking... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does our new oil price forecast mean for the Gulf? On the back of a brighter outlook for the US economy and concerns over supply, we have nudged up our forecast for Brent crude prices to end the year at $95 per barrel ($85pb previously). Although this... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
