Where and why we differ from the IMF

The IMF downgraded its expectations for EM growth in today’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), bringing its forecasts a step closer to our own. Nonetheless, while there is now not much difference between our forecasts for aggregate EM growth over the next couple of years, significant differences remain between our forecasts for individual economies. We are more bearish on the prospects for commodity producing EMs, but more bullish on the prospects for EM manufacturers.