Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt holds rates, but cuts could come back on to the agenda The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold for the second meeting in a row might suggest that the easing cycle of the past half a year has come to an end. However, given that... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack EM turbulence spreads to Africa The turmoil in EM financial markets over the past six months has spread to a number of economies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), taking some of the gloss off the region’s upbeat growth story in the... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation remains subdued despite currency weakness In aggreate terms, there is little sign that currency weakness is leading to higher emerging market (EM) inflation. With few signs of a build-up in domestic price pressures either, we expect EM... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Booming car industry could drive Morocco’s economy Morocco’s exports have, so far, seen little benefit from the recovery in the country’s key trading partners in the euro-zone. But the headline trade figures mask some encouraging developments. In... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African bond market unconvinced by budget South Africa’s Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan announced new projections for smaller fiscal deficits over the coming years in today’s budget statement, but we think that these are unlikely to be met... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Q4 growth accelerates but 2013 a year to forget Despite the acceleration in Q4, the South African economy grew at its second slowest pace in 15 years in 2013. Looking ahead, a number of domestic and external constraints suggest that growth will... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update EM currency turmoil spreads to Africa The recent turbulence in EM currency markets has spread to some of Africa’s major economies, with the Ghanaian cedi and Nigerian naira slumping to all-time lows against the US$ this month. The South... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM world is facing a difficult year The EM recovery is still struggling for momentum, with our GDP tracker suggesting that the upturn in growth seen in mid-2013 may have stalled. On the positive side, it seems unlikely that the most... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Time to revisit Africa’s growth story? Signs that the recent turbulence in EM markets is spreading to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have caused some to question the region’s upbeat growth story. But while some vulnerabilities are building and a... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Morocco and Tunisia yet to benefit from euro-zone recovery In spite of their strong trade and financial ties to the euro-zone, Morocco and Tunisia have, so far at least, seen little benefit from the recovery there. Admittedly, inflows of foreign direct... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Which EMs are succeeding with the reform challenge? In contrast to the BRICs, where economic growth is likely to disappoint without structural reform, there are parts of the emerging world where recent economic reforms should provide a major boost to... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African inflation to breach target range (again) South African inflation rose in January and the effects of a weak rand means it is likely to accelerate above the upper bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range again. This is likely to spur the... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: economic growth too slow to bring down unemployment The Egyptian economy has shown signs of recovering in recent months but this has yet to feed through to the labour market. Crucially, GDP growth is still below the rates of around 4-5% that are needed... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for “frontier” currencies? “Frontier” currencies have been the hardest hit in the latest bout of EM financial market turmoil. Looking ahead, we think further exchange rate weakness is likely to be concentrated in those... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Could devaluations be on the cards in the non-oil economies? Some of the largest falls in emerging market currencies in recent weeks have come in countries where exchange rates are tightly managed and foreign exchange reserves are low. On this basis, the MENA... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests pick up in Q4 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the South African economy picked up pace in the final quarter of last year. Nevertheless, full-year growth for 2013 is likely to have been the second worst outturn in 15... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
