How and where we differ from the consensus

In general our forecasts for both EM growth and inflation over 2015-16 are below consensus expectations and for the BRIC economies in particular we are notably more downbeat than the rest of the market. But there are a few countries, mainly in Asia, where we think growth could surprise on the upside over the next couple of years. And while EMs in Central Europe will be held back by continued weakness in the euro-zone, falling oil prices and a brief period of “good” deflation will help to cushion the blow.