Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar. 13) Canada posted it's first monthly trade surplus in a year in March. Unfortunately, we expect the improvement to be fleeting. The March figures were flattered by a big weather-related jump in natural... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar. 13) The sharp decline in the monthly trade deficit to $38.8bn in March, from $43.6bn the month before, is largely due to a distortion caused by the timing of the Lunar New Year Holiday in China. There is... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed appears less inclined to curb QE anytime soon The Fed's assessment of the economic outlook didn't change much in the statement issued today, but the FOMC nevertheless felt it necessary to flag up explicitly that the pace of asset purchases could... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The slowdown in global economic growth appears to have hit American manufacturers in April. The ISM manufacturing index dropped to 50.7 in April, from 51.3 in March, erasing almost all of the gain... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The sharp rebound in April's Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 68.1, from an upwardly revised 61.9 in March, was driven by the decline in gasoline prices and the continued rally in... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q1/Feb) Some 14 months after the trough in house prices, the homeownership rate is still declining. In other words, although there are some signs that conventional, mortgage-dependent buyers are playing more... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The bigger than expected 0.3% m/m increase in Canada's monthly GDP for February, alongside the upward revision to January's gain, suggests that first-quarter GDP growth was at least 2% annualised. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Headline PCE inflation to slip below 1% The latest fall in gasoline prices will soon drag headline PCE inflation below 1%. With core PCE inflation set to remain only just above 1.0%, the Fed is likely to become more concerned by the subdued... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Provincial growth to weaken further in 2013 The release of the provincial GDP figures for 2012 provides us with more evidence that the resource-rich western provinces were behind the bulk of the slowdown in overall economic growth last year... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal squeeze to continue With the full impact of the sequestration spending cuts, equivalent to roughly 0.7% of GDP, still to feed through, over the next 12 months the public sector will remain a significant drag on economic... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Low inflation may concern the Fed The Fed’s preferred PCE measure of core inflation could soon fall to around 1%. Together with the recent weakening in the tone of the incoming activity data, this may mean the Fed is less inclined to... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Spending abroad pinching domestic retail sales The recent softening in retail sales suggests that household consumption growth has slowed almost to a crawl. Our analysis shows that retailers are struggling partly because households, enticed by the... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The pick-up in first-quarter GDP growth to 2.5% annualised, from 0.4% in the final quarter of last year, was a little below the consensus forecast at 3.0%, but still impressive in a quarter that was... 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Slowdown in consumption growth is here to stay Although consumption growth was respectable in the second half of last year, the further deceleration in income growth, along with the reported weakness of retail spending, suggests that it has slowed... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebound as weather distortion fades Our econometric model suggests that, although the labour market has weakened since earlier in the year, conditions are not quite as bad as March’s Employment Report suggested. We expect a rebound in... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Weaker data mean the Fed is unlikely to curb QE3 yet The deterioration in the incoming economic data for March will, at least temporarily, prevent the Fed from slowing the pace of its monthly asset purchases. We anticipate that the Fed will stand pat at... 24th April 2013 · 1 min read
