US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) The 0.7% m/m decline in new home sales in July built on the downward trend of the previous six months and highlights just how fragile the housing market remains five years after boom first turned to... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) June's rebound in retail sales was driven by sharply higher auto sales, thanks to earlier-than-normal and more generous price incentives. Since then, however, auto sales have fallen back and other... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Any support from China to prove temporary The stabilisation in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI for August, along with (surely premature) hopes of additional monetary stimulus in the US, is providing some temporary support for... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q2) The most worrying thing about the modest rise in the mortgage delinquency rate in the second quarter is that it was due to more homeowners falling behind on their mortgage payments for the first time... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly House prices vulnerable to swing in "animal spirits" Canadian house prices have formed a bubble and are vulnerable to a sudden loss of investor confidence. As such, we continue to expect prices to fall substantially over the next few years, which will... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Deficit in demand to hinder economy for years Much more important than whether or not the US economy contracts for one quarter or more is that a fundamental deficit in demand means there is little prospect of a significant and sustained... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How reliable is the Philly Fed index? The plunge in the Philly Fed manufacturing index in August is not a sure-fire sign that a recession is imminent. The ISM index is more reliable. And even if the ISM index were to fall in line with the... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update TIPS close to a tipping point? The yield on US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) is close to zero for bonds maturing in ten years’ time and negative for those with a shorter remaining life. This presumably reflects a... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jul.) The slight pick-up in core consumer price inflation in July will now be of little concern to the Bank of Canada. Considering the global recession fears now gripping markets and lower commodity prices... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) The 3.5% m/m fall in existing home sales in July shows that the housing market will not pull the US economy out of its current malaise. In fact, it appears that the recent economic slowdown has... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) A further rise in core CPI inflation in the coming months will probably prevent the Fed from responding more aggressively to the economic slowdown and latest market turmoil with a third round of asset... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The sharp acceleration in money growth in July is not a result of the Fed's loose monetary policies but instead has been driven by investors moving out of equities and/or Treasuries and into cash... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update New stimulus pledge won’t prevent growth slowdown Canada’s Federal Government has declared that it would be prepared to introduce new stimulus measures, but that it would need to see clear signs of the economy contracting before offering more fiscal... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) The modest fall back in the number of housing starts in July highlights that the housing market will not be able to pull the US economy out of its current funk. In fact, the danger is that the recent... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The healthy 0.9% m/m increase in industrial production in July supports our view that GDP growth in the third quarter will rebound a bit as the adverse effects from the Japanese disaster unwind. But... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jun.) June's survey of manufacturers showed that sales fell more strongly than most had expected, by 1.5% m/m. Weaker volumes were again behind this drop, reflecting the temporary disruptions to auto and... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
