Canada Economics Weekly Housing demand dashing hopes of spring rebound The Spring housing season is just getting underway but, unfortunately, hopes of a rebound in housing demand don't look promising. The affordability argument based on low mortgage rates isn't enticing... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Second quarter unlikely to be as good as the first It is impressive that in the first quarter, when households were hit by higher taxes and everyone had to contend with a spike in gasoline prices, GDP probably grew at an annualised rate of at least 3... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) & Trade (Feb.) March's ugly 54,500 decline in employment offsets the previous month's equally surprising gain, leaving employment little changed over the first quarter of this year. Given recent sluggish GDP growth... 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb. 13) The larger than expected narrowing in the international trade deficit in February is scant consolation when some of the more up-to-date figures suggest that economic growth has started to lose a bit... 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar. 13) The modest 88,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March is further evidence that the US economy is undergoing another spring slowdown, albeit from a pretty rapid pace of growth in the first quarter. 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will onshoring drive a manufacturing renaissance? The manufacturing sector has added half a million jobs over the past few years, prompting speculation that, after a decade of offshoring production to lower cost countries like China, firms are now... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb. 13) House prices rose in February, and based on short-term leading indicators they are set to post another gain in March. This supports our view that, during 2013 as a whole, prices will increase by... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar. 13) While the refinancing boom is coming off the boil, we’re optimistic that mortgage applications for home purchase are in the early stages of a sustainable comeback. 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar. 13) It is tempting to blame the decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-month low of 51.3 in March, from 54.2, on the faltering global economic recovery. However, that theory is hard to square... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Private sector forecasters still overly optimistic The latest survey of private sector forecasters, included in the recent Federal Budget, shows that they remain overly optimistic about the prospects for economic growth in 2013 and beyond. Ignoring... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US depositors unlikely to suffer same fate as Cypriots The Cypriot bank bailout, which imposed losses on bondholders and large depositors, is never likely to be repeated in the US. For a start, while the Cypriot banking system is equivalent to a massive... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lower yields will undermine investment case - but not this year House prices are rising at a quicker pace than rents, which is weighing on rental yields. But the reduction in yields is currently very gradual, while the total return from housing remains attractive... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan. 13) January's 0.2% m/m rebound in monthly GDP, which reversed a similar-sized contraction in the final month of last year, still leaves the economy struggling to advance at a rate anywhere close to the... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Future monetary tightening and the prospects for US equities We doubt that the US stock market will fare well in the run-up to, and during the early stages of, the next tightening of monetary policy. Admittedly, this would buck the trend since 1970, when, on... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How long before US corporate profit margins are squeezed? Although the profit share in the US corporate sector is likely to have remained at a very high level in Q4 2012, we continue to expect margins to be squeezed this year. Further gains in the stock... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) The stronger than expected pick-up in headline inflation to 1.2% in February, from 0.5% in January, mostly reflects higher gasoline and motor vehicle prices. It does not alter the near-term outlook... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
