US Employment Report Preview Earnings growth won’t take off Our econometric model suggests that payrolls rose by around 175,000 in February, which would leave employment growing at much the same pace as in recent months. Without a meaningful acceleration in... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) January's durable goods report is a lot better than the 5.2% m/m drop in headline orders suggests, even after factoring in the downward revision to December's gain, which was trimmed to 3.7% m/m from... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US banks well placed to boost lending further The FDIC’s banking profile for the fourth quarter of last year shows that US banks are well placed to continue boosting lending to both firms and households. At the same time, there is not much... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Don't rule out future interest rate cuts The FDIC’s banking profile for the fourth quarter of last year shows that US banks are well placed to continue boosting lending to both firms and households. At the same time, there is not much... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales (Q4/Jan.) House prices ended 2012 on a high note and new home sales got off to a very strong start in 2013. Put simply, the housing recovery continues to accelerate. 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke weighs the costs and benefits of more QE Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual congressional testimony confirmed that the FOMC is paying a lot more attention to the potential costs of continuing with its quantitative easing this year... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Despite lower household income and surging gasoline prices, consumers were relatively upbeat in February. The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence rose for the first time in four months... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rising gasoline prices another blow for households The surge in retail gasoline prices to $3.80 per gallon, from $3.40 only a month ago, will put more pressure on households who are already struggling to cope with the expiry of the payroll tax cut... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will housing equity withdrawal return this year? Rising house prices, more home sales, and a slight loosening in credit conditions should see housing equity withdrawal turn positive in 2013 or soon after. Nevertheless, the amount of equity extracted... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Canada's economy grinding to a standstill? We estimate that Canada's economy grew by roughly 0.5% annualised over the entire second half of last year and is likely to perform little better over the first half of this year. Trade competiveness... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will financial stability concerns force the Fed to curb QE3? In light of last week's revelations in the minutes from January's FOMC meeting, Chairman Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony this week will be watched particularly closely for any signs that he is... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) Following a year in which India’s growth weakened, external deficit widened, and sovereign ratings came under pressure, the upcoming budget will be a crucial test of the government’s policy... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies & Existing Sales (Q4/Jan) Together, the fall in foreclosure starts and the foreclosure inventory and the rise in the number of non-distressed home sales are encouraging signs of a housing market returning to health. 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s consumer prices data provide a timely reminder that, even though it is now four years since the Fed first started expanding its balance sheet, there are few signs that inflation is becoming... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Fed about to take the punch bowl away? Despite the uncertainty created by the latest FOMC minutes, we do not believe that the Fed will be in any hurry to halt its additional asset purchases completely. Nonetheless, the reaction in the... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Falling house prices setting a precedent for further declines National home prices have been in decline for five consecutive months and we anticipate further declines this year, as potential buyers are scared off by the prospect of capital losses. We standby our... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
