US Housing Market Focus Will New York City's housing market continue outperforming? House prices and residential sales activity in New York City look set to underperform the wider US housing market over the next few years. Valuations in NYC are less favourable than elsewhere, the... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic slack likely to persist The Bank of Canada and International Monetary Fund still expect economic growth in Canada to accelerate through the course of this year. Admittedly, net exports are unlikely to remain a drag on GDP... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Republicans picking their battles The Republicans opted to raise the debt ceiling temporarily because they believed it was politically expedient to link their demands for spending cuts to one of the many other potential budget... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) The surprising drop in December's official core inflation rate to 1.1%, from 1.2% in November, suggests that there is much more slack in the economy than most economists previously thought. With sub... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec. 12) It’s a disappointment that the level of new home sales in December was no higher than it was seven months earlier in May. But December’s new home sales report isn’t as bad as it first appears. 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the Markit PMI leading the way or the odd one out? By pointing to an acceleration in manufacturing output growth to around 8% per year, the Markit manufacturing PMI is probably a bit too upbeat. After all, it stands out as being much more optimistic... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Steady, but not spectacular Our econometric model suggests that payroll employment rose by a respectable, but hardly spectacular, 150,000 in January. Meanwhile, the annual benchmark revision may show that payrolls rose by more... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada backing down on tightening bias In a surprise climb down, the Bank of Canada admitted that the need to withdraw policy stimulus is less imminent, partly reflecting the weaker global economic outlook, but mainly because the housing... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed still looking for substantial improvement in labour market The first FOMC meeting of the New Year, which concludes next Wednesday (30th January), is unlikely to bring any major changes coming, as it does, only six weeks after the Fed expanded its large-scale... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec. 12) The number of existing home sales fell in December, but the underlying trend in sales remains upwards. Moreover, supply conditions are still very tight. 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) November's solid 0.8% m/m gain in retail sales volumes, paired with a similar increase in wholesale trade, suggests that monthly GDP grew by 0.3% m/m in November. Nonetheless, there is still some... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A brighter outlook for exporters Thanks to the recent pick up in overseas activity and the fall in the dollar, the outlook for US exporters has brightened. But without a major turnaround in economic activity in the euro-zone, export... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack 2013 off to a weak start In the end the looming fiscal cliff didn't appear to have any severe impact on the wider economy, with the growth rates of employment, retail sales and even durable goods orders all accelerating over... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Decline in home prices still on the way The latest round of housing data released last week predictably led to more claims that the market is enjoying a soft landing because, even though home sales fell sharply over the second half of last... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Payroll tax hike will curtail consumption growth The expiry of the payroll tax cut could easily bring the acceleration in consumption growth over the second half of last year to a juddering halt this January. Some of the blow to real incomes will be... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The slight drop in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a one-year low of 71.3 in January, from 72.9, suggests that the actual onset of lower after-tax incomes in the New... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
