US Economics Update Confidence will soon rise back after payroll tax hike hit Consumer confidence may be as much as 20 points lower than otherwise due to the effects of the payroll tax hike. But as long as employment continues to rise, gasoline prices don’t increase too much... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar headed even lower At a global level, stock markets have been buoyed by signs that economic outlook is improving. Unfortunately, held back by weak domestic demand, low inflation and narrowing interest rate differentials... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are we wrong to shrug off the fall in GDP? Even after taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture, we still don’t believe that the fall in GDP in the fourth quarter is much of a concern. Contractions in government spending and... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What should the Fed make of the labour market? The mixed messages in January's labour market report underline how hard it is for the financial markets to gauge exactly what the Fed means by its loosely defined pledge, to continue with its... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The increase in the ISM manufacturing index to a one-year high of 53.1 in January, from 50.2 in December, indicates that the improvement in global factory conditions, evident in the rebound in various... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) Coming on the heels of the unexpected dip in fourth-quarter GDP, January's Employment Report should help to soothe any lingering concerns that the economy is headed for a recession. 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence index points to better start to 2013 The recent improvement in small and medium sized business confidence points to a pick-up in economic growth in the first quarter, to around 2% annualised, roughly twice the pace of last quarter. We... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update West to lead house price growth in 2013 We’re expecting US house prices to rise by around 5% this year, but a closer look at the regional picture suggests that the gains will be most pronounced in the West. 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov. 12) November's 0.3% m/m gain in GDP, following the slightly downward revised 0.1% advance the month before, almost insures that fourth-quarter GDP growth improved somewhat over the poor 0.6% annualised... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed swaps one hawk for another The latest Fed statement offers little new, apart from a change in the resident hawk on the FOMC. We still expect QE to be maintained at $85bn per month until early 2014. 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Slower consumption growth to linger Slower growth in wages and salaries and lower consumer confidence suggest that real consumption growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter, to only half the 3.8% annualised gain in the third. We... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 12 1st Estimate) The 0.1% q/q decline in fourth-quarter GDP growth is going to get everybody very excited today, but this isn't the start of a new recession. First-quarter GDP growth is going to be pretty weak because... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The drop in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a 14-month low of 58.6 in January, from 66.7, appears to have been driven by the recent payroll tax increase. Even if confidence does... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q4/Nov) The fact that the housing recovery is being driven principally by investor demand means that the slight decline in the homeownership rate in the fourth quarter is unlikely to be the last. 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal deficit elimination goal may face longer delays An underperforming economy will make it tougher for the federal government to eliminate its budget deficit worth just over 1% of GDP. Although some headway has been made this year, weak underlying... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec. 12) Business investment apparently enjoyed an unexpected renaissance over the final few months of last year, only getting stronger as the fiscal cliff deadline got closer. Durable goods orders increased... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
