US Economics Update Fed contemplating early end to QE3 The minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting in late January suggest that rising fears over the potential costs from further quantitative easing could prompt Fed officials to reduce or even halt the... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan. 13) January’s large drop in housing starts isn’t as bad as the headline numbers suggest. And with housing starts still significantly below normal levels, there is plenty of scope for strong gains later... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Brighter forestry prospects no harbinger for Canada The turnaround in the US housing market, which has pushed lumber prices up to multi-year highs, is benefiting Canada's forestry exporters. However, the pick-up in demand for lumber south of the border... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The Fed’s QE3 policy has contributed to the acceleration in the growth rate of our M3* measure of broad money to a four-year high of 6.5% in January. But the continued expansion in the Fed’s balance... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update G20 doubles up on familiar messages The fall-out from an extended period of monetary expansion in the US and Japan will continue to ripple around the global financial system, not least in the form of capital flows to emerging markets... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Considerable economic slack dampening inflation We think that the Bank of Canada has been underestimating the amount of slack in the economy, which explains why its recent quarterly inflation forecasts have erred on the high side. Looking ahead... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Currency wars and cash hoarding concerns overblown All the recent talk of currency wars is overdone and holds few implications for the US economy. The rise in the dollar against the yen has just been offset by a fall against the euro. The dollar trade... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to 76.3 in February, from 73.8, probably reflects a mixture of better news on the labour market and the continued rally in stock... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod. (Jan.) & Empire State Index (Feb.) There’s no need to be concerned by the fall in manufacturing output in January. The improvement in the survey evidence and the slightly better global backdrop actually mean that industrial conditions... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) December's disappointing 3.1% m/m drop in manufacturing sales more than offset the previous month's rebound and suggests that industrial production faltered at the end of last year. Overall, the risks... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are house prices gains in some States unsustainable? Concerns have been raised that some States are seeing unsustainable, investor-fuelled house price increases. However, we think that in most of these markets, the fundamentals are supportive of a... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Sequestration a secondary issue to budget talks The probability is rising that Congress won't act to prevent the sequestration spending cuts taking effect at the start of next month. On paper, that would reduce spending by $110bn per year... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A squeeze on profit margins could weigh on US equities We suspect that cyclical forces will prompt a further rise in workers’ slice of the US economic pie this year, and that the resulting squeeze on profit margins will weigh on the stock market. 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fundamentals better, but downside risks remain The outlook for the US economy is improving and, although first-quarter GDP growth will be hit by the expiry of the payroll tax cut, growth should climb back to around 2.5% annualised in the second... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) It is mildly encouraging that consumption in January did not capitulate completely after the recent tax hikes. And while higher taxes and the latest leap in gasoline prices could yet hit sales harder... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus State and local governments will partly offset Federal drag State and local governments have sorted out their finances to such an extent that they will soon be in a position to raise spending and, consequently, boost both GDP and job growth. This will offset... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
