Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) November's 1.6% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales volumes is encouraging, though not strong enough to offset the previous month's decline of 2.2% m/m. All things considered, the risks to our... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal uncertainty likely to be an ongoing problem Regardless of how the current debt ceiling negotiations pan out, the bigger problem is that there has been an almost complete breakdown in the working relationship between both sides in Congress. As a... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec. 12) December’s surge in housing starts tops off an encouraging year for homebuilders. Given how far below normal levels starts remain even now, we expect further strong gains during 2013. 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Tightening bias will be dropped before year end We expect the Bank of Canada to continue justifying its tightening bias next week on the basis of high household debt. Before year end, however, we expect the Bank to drop talk of rate hikes. The weak... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) The annual growth rate of our measure of the broadest M3 monetary aggregate hit a three-and-a-half-year high of 6.4% in December, with the growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 aggregates also... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Dec. 12) Inflation dipped further below the Fed's 2% target in December, leaving it free to focus its policy efforts on reducing the still elevated unemployment rate. 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus New mortgage rules won't hamper housing recovery The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau’s ability-to-repay rule, and within that its definition of a qualified mortgage, will not hamper the housing recovery. Mortgage-dependent buyers aren’t playing... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Dec. 12) The apparent strength of retail sales growth over the final few months of last year suggests that the looming fiscal cliff, including the risk of higher taxes, did little to deter consumers over the... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov. 12) House prices rose again in November, both before and after applying seasonal adjustment. Consistent price increases throughout 2012 have started the process of lifting households out of negative... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses investing cautiously amidst uncertainty The fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey indicates that, while more businesses expect future sales growth to pick-up as they plan to increase investment in machinery and equipment, their modest... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is business uncertainty holding the economy back? The uncertainty created by the fragile global backdrop and the potential fight brewing over the US debt ceiling are hurting Canadian business investment, and will continue to hold the economy back in... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly $1trn coin not a realistic option The fanciful idea that the US Treasury could circumvent the debt ceiling by minting a $1trn platinum coin suddenly exploded in popularity last week. This is never going to happen. One question that... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov. 12) November's paltry 0.1% m/m gain in export volumes is a discouraging sign for fourth-quarter GDP growth. Overall, the data suggest that the risks to our 1.5% annualised fourth-quarter GDP growth lie... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov. 12) The unexpected widening in the trade deficit to a seven-month high of $48.7bn in November, from $42.1bn, is not good news for fourth-quarter GDP growth. It looks like GDP growth was between 1.0% and 1... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Adding R&D will boost the level of US GDP The inclusion later this year of capitalised research and development (R&D) expenditure in the national accounts will boost the level of GDP by up to 3%, with most of that additional spending being... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Downward trend in housing investment will persist Housing starts continued to ease during the fourth quarter of last year, to an annualised 202,855, from 221,709 in the prior quarter. Nevertheless, it is possible that overall residential investment... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
