Canada Economic Outlook Housing downturn intensifies A prolonged housing downturn means that economic growth will be much weaker over the next two years. Gains in business investment and somewhat better export growth, though, will help to buffer... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov. 12) The fall in housing starts in November should prove to be no more than a temporary set-back. The forward-looking indicators point to a decent rise in starts in December, and a continued underlying... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Industry stagnating There are some signs that the recent stagnation in manufacturing output won’t last long. The Markit manufacturing PMI rose to a seven-month high in December and, although the headline index of the ISM... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small firms and high-income households more downbeat The recent falls in sentiment of small businesses and high-earning consumers highlight that the fiscal cliff stand-off is weighing on activity. But the resulting hit to the economy may not be too... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Moderating housing trends mimic US slowdown The continued decline in existing home sales support our view that a potentially severe housing correction is underway. Assuming that sales continue to trend lower heading into next year, then sharper... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will 2013 be a break-out year for the US economy? We anticipate that US GDP growth will be a modest 2.0% in 2013, before picking up to 2.5% in 2014. There are still downside risks, particularly the possibility of a renewed crisis in the euro-zone or... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Fed's latest announcement that it will be doubling its open-ended QE3 purchases to $85bn per month means that we can expect a large increase in the monetary base in 2013. As with previous rounds... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed's thresholds don't alter policy stance We welcome the Fed’s decision to link the timing of its first interest rate hike to numerical thresholds for the unemployment rate and inflation. But this tweak didn’t actually alter the stance of... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the western provinces outperform in 2013? Canada's western provinces, which have outperformed most other provinces over the past two years, are likely to remain on top in 2013. High oil and other commodity prices should continue to benefit... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Nov. 12) The drop back in inflation below the 2% target in November will allow the Fed to continue focusing its efforts on boosting the real economy. This is just as well when, after stripping out the effect... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Oct. 12) October's discouraging 2.4% m/m drop in manufacturing sales volumes together with the soft external trade data, released earlier this week, suggest that the economy stalled in October. Accordingly... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rebound in household formation to support rental market Rebounding household formation will be a tailwind for the housing recovery. But with the overwhelming majority of newly forming households over the next few years set to rent rather than own their... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Nov. 12) November’s retail sales figures didn’t alter our view that consumption is struggling to find momentum. With consumer confidence now falling, hopes that retailers would enjoy a robust holiday shopping... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed adopts new thresholds and expands QE3 The Fed's adoption of numerical thresholds is, in practical terms, just a tweak in the framework used to signal how long it expects to leave short-term rates at near-zero. Based on the FOMC's new... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct. 12) October's flat export volumes are a discouraging sign for fourth-quarter GDP growth. In addition, the widespread decline in imports hints at a slowing domestic economy. Overall, the data suggest that... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Surge in HARP refinancing continues The typical guarantee fee charged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to lenders rose to a high of 46 basis points in early December. Mortgage borrowers will soon see fees rise as a result, but this will... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
