Canada Economics Weekly US housing recovery welcomed news for exporters The nascent US housing recovery is welcomed news for Canada's exporters, though a full fledged US economic recovery is likely to remain elusive for another year or two. Nonetheless, we anticipate some... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rebound in house prices will reduce negative equity The housing recovery continues to go from strength-to-strength. House prices have risen by 5% over the past 12 months and there is an upside risk of a further acceleration. The faster prices rebound... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct. 12) Although core inflation, which remained at 1.3% in October, was slightly firmer than the consensus forecast of 1.2%, it remains well below the 2% policy target. Given the third-quarter economic... 23rd November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep. 12) September's disappointing flat retail sales volumes, paired with a decline in wholesale trade and a modest increase in manufacturing sales, indicates that monthly GDP grew by just 0.1% m/m in... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing stagnation comes before the fall The recent decline in the sales-to-listings ratio points to home price stagnation ahead, a prospect that has already begun to scare away some condo investors. In Vancouver and Toronto, existing condo... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Housing continues to strengthen Amid all the serious downside risks to the economic outlook, including the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff negotiations and the possibility of a resurgence of the crisis in the euro-zone, the... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) The further rise in housing starts in October confirms that the previous month’s very strong gain was not an unsustainable surge. With housing starts rising by 41.9% over the past year, it’s clear... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Economic growth likely to remain sluggish Canada's economy is entering a slow growth zone. With external headwinds continuing to challenge exports and business confidence, stagnation in the domestic housing market is further casting doubt... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) The improvement in existing home sales, which continued in October, is being driven by the very favourable level of housing valuations and affordability. The combination of rising demand and tight... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The annual growth rate of our measure of the broad M3 monetary aggregate edged up slightly to 5.5% in October and, with the Fed hinting at an expansion of its QE3 large-scale asset purchases in the... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Lower gasoline prices a timely boost The encouraging noises emanating from Washington make it more likely, although it is still far from certain, that a deal to prevent the fiscal cliff will be reached and that any adverse impact on the... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Government well positioned to weather storms The federal government's updated fiscal plan released last week, which reiterated the commitment to control program spending, is likely to come undone next year if, as we fear, economic growth slows... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Interpret Black Friday sales with caution We would warn against reading too much into the performance of retail sales on Black Friday as there is little evidence that it will set the tone for sales during the whole holiday season. More... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q3) The decline in mortgage delinquencies in the third quarter is another encouraging sign that the housing market is improving. In particular, it means that the shadow inventory of homes in imminent... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) September's moderate 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing sales volumes, which was largely bolstered by a jump in aerospace, supports the view that Canada's economy grew by 0.2% m/m. Nevertheless, this... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The annual rate of CPI inflation edged back up to 2.2% last month, from 2.0%, but will drop back before year-end thanks to the continued decline in gasoline prices. Core inflation remained unchanged... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
