US Economics Weekly Election going down to the wire Regardless of who wins the Presidential election, the chances of the victor having a compliant Congress appear to be fading fast. So even if Romney won, the most likely scenario is still that a deal... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 12 1st Estimate) The US economy expanded by a solid 2.0% annualised in the third quarter, up from 1.3% in the second, as a pick-up in consumption growth more than offset a decline in business investment. We suspect... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment data swept up in pre-election hoopla As the last major piece of economic news to be released before the Presidential election, October’s Employment Report will attract even more attention than normal, with both parties attempting to spin... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Sep.) Bizarrely, even though September's durable goods report shows an above-consensus 9.9% m/m rebound in orders, the overall report is a disappointment that signals third-quarter GDP growth was weaker... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homebuilders benefiting from lower distressed supply The continued drop in the supply of distressed homes on the market is encouraging homebuilders to break ground on more sites. Admittedly, with a substantial overhang of properties still in the shadow... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Strong payrolls survey encouraging for third-quarter GDP The recent strength in non-farm payroll data, which have showed solid gains in both employment and average weekly earnings, indicates that an improvement in third-quarter wages and salaries growth... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode ahead of election After the fireworks at the last FOMC meeting in mid-September, when the Fed launched an open-ended QE3 and strengthened its forward-looking guidance on leaving its policy rate at near-zero, the two... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still overly optimistic on outlook The Bank's October Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents an overly optimistic outlook for Canada's economy. While weak foreign demand restrains Canada's exports, flagging domestic business confidence... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Q3 GDP growth has downside risk Even though our 1.3% estimate for annualised third-quarter GDP growth is already well below the consensus forecast of 1.8%, we're a little concerned that growth could turn out to be even weaker... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep. 12) September’s rise in new home sales is another sign that homebuyers are becoming more willing and more able to splash out on a new home. 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Consumers rally, while businesses run scared The US economy has developed something of a split personality lately, with consumer confidence hitting a five-year high, while capital goods orders, an indicator of business investment, fall at a pace... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada hawkish bias targets households The Bank of Canada is still saying that its policy rate will need to rise from the current 1%, but there appears to have been a shift in its reasoning for maintaining the tightening bias. Given the... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug. 12) Despite the 0.3% m/m decline in retail sales volumes in August, the rebounds in both wholesale trade and manufacturing sales suggest that GDP growth increased by a firm 0.2% m/m in August. Nonetheless... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US banks cut their exposure to German banks New figures show that US banks have not just continued to reduce their exposure to those euro-zone nations most in trouble, but they have also started to trim their exposure to German banks. This... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business investment outlook less encouraging Despite the global economic slowdown, Canadian business investment is just about holding up, largely thanks to the strength of engineering and construction projects. All things considered, we think... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumption gaining some traction It is encouraging that only a small part of the recent acceleration in consumption growth is due to the release of Apple’s iPhone 5 and that the recovery in the housing market is gathering pace. But... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
