US Economic Outlook Fiscal cliff still likely to be averted We still expect the newly re-elected President Obama and Congress to reach an agreement to avert most of the scheduled tax hikes and spending cuts that would otherwise kick in at the start of next... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is mortgage demand picking up? Conflicting signals make it hard to draw firm conclusions, but the balance of evidence increasingly suggests that mortgage-dependent buyers are starting to make more of a contribution to the housing... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s retail sales figures suggest that consumption has lost a bit of momentum ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season. If this was due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy, then sales will... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Are restrictions on home buyers too onerous? Although federal regulatory tightening of mortgage insurance rules and other lending principles have upset housing, we believe the new restrictions on home buying are prudent rather than too onerous... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Focus quickly shifts to fiscal cliff negotiations Some have argued that the election result, which maintained the broad status quo of a divided Congress, was the worst possible outcome for the fiscal cliff negotiations. But as far as the fiscal cliff... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The rise in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to 84.9 in November, from 82.6, appears to have been driven by a combination of the recent drop back in gasoline prices and the... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep. 12) September's trade report confirms that exports were a major drag on overall third-quarter GDP growth, with net exports subtracting possibly as much as three percentage points. This evidence, combined... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep. 12) The unexpected narrowing in the trade deficit in September opens the door to an modest upward revision to third-quarter real GDP growth. The bigger picture is that the weak global backdrop will... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Upbeat small businesses don't alter broad picture The latest increase in CFIB's small business optimism index to a six-month high of 65.6 in October, from 62.0 in September, doesn't alter the big picture that the economy may have slowed further at... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing starts likely to slump next year Since early 2010, housing starts have been driven by the multi-unit sector, with single detached housing starts remaining broadly unchanged. The problem is that housing construction has been running... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Obama re-election doesn’t alter bigger picture The re-election of President Obama removes one uncertainty that has been weighing on the markets over the last few months. But they are none the wiser about if, how and when Congress will deal with... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 12) After rising strongly in the early part of October, mortgage applications have since dropped steadily despite the very low level of mortgage interest rates. This suggests that tight lending criteria... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Solving the business hiring/investment puzzle Businesses are developing a split personality. The slump in capital goods orders suggests that businesses are increasingly concerned about the looming fiscal cliff and/or the global economic slowdown... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) All of the small month-on-month fall in the CoreLogic house price index in September was down to predictable seasonal factors. After accounting for the usual slowdown at this time of year, house... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Further slump in wage growth unlikely We doubt that the fall in the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings to a record low in October is the start of another downward leg that will eventually end in outright declines in earnings... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Signs that willing sellers are returning Having fallen briefly following the announcement of QE3, MBS yields and mortgage interest rates were rising again in the final weeks of October. Of course, the bigger picture remains that mortgage... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
