Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada turning more dovish The Bank of Canada is still clinging to the possibility that its policy rate might need to rise from the current 1% because it is too early to tell whether the housing slowdown will be sustained. It... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct. 12) Adjusting for the normal seasonal dip in house prices seen at this time of year, prices rose again in October. Therefore, the underlying trend in the CoreLogic measure of house prices is strongly... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The drop in the ISM manufacturing index back below the supposed boom/bust level of 50 for the first time since July may not be due to superstorm Sandy. Instead, it may be a result of the uncertainty... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Energy sector in a jam A rebound in Canadian energy production, which was hit by temporary disruptions in the third quarter, should ensure that GDP growth rebounds to around 1.5% annualised in the fourth quarter. The... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2012) Canada's disappointing 0.6% annualised third-quarter GDP growth puts further pressure on the Bank of Canada to drop its tightening bias. We doubt, however, that this would be enough to prompt the Bank... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Concerns over student loans overdone The rapid rise in the value of outstanding student loans and the spike in the default rate have fuelled fears that student loans are the next bubble. Aside from the risk that excessive borrowing early... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is the housing recovery the real deal? The housing recovery faces an array of headwinds, but we continue to think that it is sustainable. Although the recovery remains narrowly dependent on cash buyers and investors, outside of a few... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Sandy having lingering impact on labour market The lingering effects of superstorm Sandy mean that non-farm payroll employment probably increased in net terms by just 75,000 in November, which would be less than half the gain in October. The... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Third quarter wage growth looks robust Despite the modest drop back in September's non-farm payroll employment and average weekly earnings, third-quarter annualised growth in wages and salaries is likely to have accelerated to perhaps 8.0%... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Next move in rates more likely to be down than up We expect the Bank of Canada to stick with its tightening bias in next week’s policy statement and through the early stages of next year, before removing it completely by early March. By then we... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct. 12) The small fall in new home sales in October, and the downward revision to September’s figures, mean that the recovery in new home sales is looking a little weaker than we were previously led to... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) November's slight uptick in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a near-five-year high of 73.7, from 73.1 in October, appears to have been driven by lower gasoline prices. Despite... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q3) The third successive quarterly rise in national house prices is additional evidence that housing is experiencing a sustainable upturn. The fundamentals of very favourable housing valuations and... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Housing recovery an upside risk to inflation Unless the housing recovery proves to be much stronger than we expect, it won’t provide a worrying boost to core CPI inflation. Nonetheless, the housing market poses an upside risk to our view that... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Oct.) October's durable goods data suggest that the slump in business investment eased slightly last month. But we don't anticipate any marked turnaround until Congress gets its act together and reaches an... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Carney's departure bad timing for Canada Mark Carney's surprise decision to accept the head job at the Bank of England, after explicitly telling everyone he was not interested, adds to an already uncertain outlook for Canada. Moreover, it... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
