US Housing Market Chart Pack Fiscal cliff deal extends Mortgage Debt Relief Act The 11th hour deal to avert the fiscal cliff included a one-year extension of the Mortgage Debt Relief Act. The Act, which frees homeowners from paying tax on forgiven mortgage principal, has become... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Hopes abound for an unlikely housing soft landing The sharp slowdown in existing home sales is grim news for the new housing industry, which continues to build above population requirements. We expect these growing demand and supply imbalances to... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Falling inflation another concern for policymakers The slump in Canadian inflation over the second half of last year makes it even more likely that the Bank of Canada will soon abandon any pretence of hiking interest rates in 2013. Headline CPI... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fight over debt ceiling likely to be even worse The 11th hour fiscal cliff deal to avert most of the scheduled tax increases was better than nothing, but it didn’t include a provision to raise the debt ceiling and the scheduled spending cuts have... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) There is no denying the strength apparent in Canada's labour market at the end of 2012. Employment increased by nearly 40,000 in December, driving the unemployment rate down to a four-year low of 7.1%... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 155,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in December is yet another month of job growth that is just about enough to keep pace with the underlying growth in the labour force, but not enough to drive... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Ending the year on a high Jobs growth probably accelerated in December, as a few more employees finally returned to work after the disruptions caused by superstorm Sandy. Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal cliff deal falls a long way short of what is needed The fiscal cliff deal approved by both Houses of Congress to avert most of the scheduled tax increases is better than nothing, but it didn’t include a provision to raise the debt ceiling, and the... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The very modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.7 in December, from 49.5, illustrates that the factory sector ended last year still caught between the cross-fire of a global economic... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) The rise in home purchase mortgage applications in December took the run of increases to four months. Admittedly, they remain low by past standards. But at least these data add to the growing sense... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal cliff end-game still in sight, maybe The negotiations to avert the fiscal cliff are, as we always expected, going down to the wire. This is supposed to be political theatre. The failure of Boehner's "Plan B" illustrates that any deal has... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly How will 2013 differ from 2012? Our bearish call a year ago for moderate to weak GDP growth, subdued inflation and prolonged low interest rates is looking prescient now that the slumping housing market threatens to upset Canada's... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) & CPI (Nov.) The 0.1% m/m gain in October's GDP, which partly reflected a rebound in oil and gas extraction, suggests that the economy began the fourth quarter on a somewhat stronger footing. The pace of economic... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Personal Income/Spend. & Durable Goods (Nov.) November's personal income/spending and durable goods reports suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be a little stronger than we previously thought. We are revising our forecast up from 1.5% to... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov. 12) Another strong gain took existing home sales above the five million mark, and to a three-year high, in November. Moreover, supply conditions tightened further and are consistent with house prices... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct. 12) The 0.3% m/m bounce back in retail sales volumes in October, together with the large increase in wholesale trade reported yesterday, suggest that monthly GDP inched higher, stronger than the... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
