US Data Response International Trade (Oct. 12) October’s trade release is the latest to look worse than it really is due to the effects of superstorm Sandy. Nonetheless, another year of tepid global growth will mean that the external sector... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing investment decline likely to worsen The declining trend in housing starts supports our view that a housing correction is underway. The slump in new and existing home sales suggest that this slowdown will worsen next year, hitting the... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Rise in confidence never looked justified The rise in consumer confidence to a five-year high in November can’t be explained by developments in equity prices, gasoline prices, the labour market or the housing market. As such, it’s no surprise... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Households still paying down debt The household debt to disposable income ratio fell to a nine-year low of 113% in the third quarter, down from a peak of 134%. The deleveraging process will continue for a few more years, although with... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business spending renaissance won't improve productivity The recent improvement in business capital spending has prompted speculation that a business productivity renaissance is at hand. This seems like wishful thinking. The majority of the growth in recent... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The sharp drop in December's University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low of 74.5, from 82.7, suggests that the looming fiscal cliff has finally started to take a toll... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's surprisingly strong 59,300 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was 10,000) seems far too good for an economy that is still growing below its potential rate. Given the uncertain... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) November's Employment Report is something of a mixed bag but, on balance, it's a positive. Non-farm payroll employment increased by a better than expected 146,000 last month, well above the consensus... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus 2013 – make or break? 2013 could be the year in which a number of factors that have been holding back the US economic recovery are removed. This doesn’t mean the economy will soon start firing on all cylinders. But it does... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Shifting up the gears The housing recovery is building a real head of steam. We anticipate further strong gains in home sales and housing starts in 2013. At the national level, price gains are likely to match those seen... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Export growth likely to remain hard fought Global manufacturing PMI data for November indicate that Canada's non-energy exports will remain broadly stagnant in the near term. The recovery in US home building and auto sales, however, should... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will the US ever achieve energy independence? The rebound in domestic production of both crude oil and natural gas has led to increased speculation that America could become energy independent. The US will become progressively less reliant on oil... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business confidence suggest below potential Q4 GDP Although the monthly small business optimism index fell back in November, the quarterly average of our seasonally adjusted measure still points to fourth-quarter GDP growth of just below 2.0%... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) Mortgage applications for home purchase ticked up slightly in November and are now rising year-on-year. While the bigger picture is still that demand for purchase mortgages remains very subdued, this... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US fiscal cliff unlikely to destabilise Mexican economy Fears about the looming fiscal cliff have caused US businesses and households to defer spending plans, in the process contributing to the recent slowdown in the Mexican economy. But with an abrupt... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed likely to replace twist with more QE It looks like the Fed will replace its expiring Operation Twist with an expansion of the assets it is purchasing under the QE3 programme. We expect that the Fed will use next week's two-day FOMC... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
