US Economics Weekly Businesses halt investment ahead of the fiscal cliff The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer survey suggested that businesses are increasingly putting on hold investment decisions just in case Congress allows the fiscal cliff to hit. There is a growing... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Manufacturers in path of perfect storm The fragility of the global economic recovery, as we have long forewarned, has resurfaced and signs point to a material slowdown in global growth and commodity prices. Unfortunately, the global... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct. 12) October's unexpectedly weak 1,800 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was 10,000) can be forgiven given the unusually strong gains in the previous two months. The worsening economic outlook... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) We doubt that October's Employment Report is either strong enough or weak enough to have any marked impact on next week's presidential election. Non-farm payrolls increased by a better than expected... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How "good" economic data can be "bad" for commodities The slide in commodity prices today following the release of an apparently strong US Employment Report underlines their sensitivity to expectations of further monetary support. As it happens, the pace... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) A mild improvement in the global economy appears to be supporting American industry while, at the same time, the housing recovery has continued to strengthen. 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Despite the increase in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a near-five-year high of 72.2 in October, from 68.4 in September, annualised consumption growth is unlikely to post a... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What to make of the decline in the jumbo mortgage rate spread? At face value, the decline in the spread of jumbo mortgage interest rates over the rates on conforming loans is one of a number of signs that restrictions on the availability of jumbo mortgages have... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Banks more willing to lend, but demand faltering The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) shows that banks are more willing to lend, but the problem is that, with global economic growth slowing and the fiscal cliff looming, US households... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The surprising 0.1% m/m decline in monthly GDP for August suggests the economy might have struggled to grow by even 1% annualised in the third quarter, below our previous estimate of 1.4%. Given the... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Vehicle sales could drive faster GDP growth Favourable pricing and financing conditions mean that the pent up demand for new vehicles created during the recession could soon be released. Such a surge in new vehicle sales has the capacity to... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economic impact of Hurricane Sandy likely to be small The flooding and power outages across large parts of the East Coast mean that Hurricane Sandy will undoubtedly hit economic output in the short-term. Some of that output will be made up before the end... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q3/Aug) Even with the housing recovery well underway, the share of Americans who own their own home remains more or less at a 16-year low. This fact is a reminder that, to date, the recovery still owes a lot... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Further consensus growth downgrades likely lie ahead The downgraded consensus of private-sector GDP forecasts surveyed by the federal government for its upcoming fiscal update still looks overly optimistic. Further negative growth surprises to the... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update ADP revamp should be treated with caution Recent changes to the way the ADP calculates its measure of employment means it now has an even closer historical relationship with the official payroll data. But what really matters is whether it is... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada not immune to potential sub-prime problems The sub-prime mortgage crisis is often miscast as the cause of the US housing bust and that because Canada's sub-prime industry is supposedly much smaller in comparison, fears of a similar housing... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
