US Economics Update US economic growth may be far from over In a new academic paper, Robert Gordon speculates that per capita economic growth in the US could permanently stagnate, as fading innovation is compounded by headwinds from demography, education... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) August trade figures were disappointing. Export volumes were largely unchanged and there were downward revisions to export growth in previous months. Overall, we calculate that net exports likely... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug. 12) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $44.2bn in August, from $42.5bn, was due to the combination of a drop in exports and an increase in the value of petroleum-related imports. 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Labour market slack likely to increase Government officials insist that much of the slack in the labour market following the 2009 recession has been taken up. Alternative measures, however, contradict this message. Admittedly, the official... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update New-build premium starting to drop The price premium attached to new-builds has fallen over the past six months. Moreover, continued strong investor demand, which is bidding up prices among the lowest tier of existing homes, should see... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Seasonal problems with the U6 unemployment rate Jack Welch's tweet wasn't the only piece of nonsense written last week about the reported decline in the unemployment rate to 7.8% in September. The decline in the standard measure was questioned by... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update IMF still overly optimistic on Canada The IMF's revised economic growth outlook for Canada, which anticipates a slight pick-up in 2013 annual GDP growth, looks in our view to be overly optimistic. As we forewarned, the global economic... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage interest rates drop further on QE3 The announcement of the third round of quantitative easing, during which the Fed will buy $40bn of mortgage-backed securities per month until the outlook for the labour market improves ‘substantially’... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Bank deleveraging behind the slump in financial flows While the net external financial surplus, which offsets the current account deficit, has remained broadly unchanged at around 3% of GDP over the past few years, the separate financial inflows and... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment stalls The latest monthly data suggest that business investment contracted slightly in the third quarter, probably because of a growing caution with the fiscal cliff looming closer and the euro-zone crisis... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September's consensus blowing 52,100 gain in employment seems at odds with the recent lacklustre pace of GDP growth. The increase in the unemployment rate, to 7.4%, from 7.3% in August, is more... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) While the modest 114,000 increase in September's non-farm payrolls was no better than the consensus forecast, the 86,000 upward revision to job gains in the two months before that and the decline in... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is America a country of part-timers? The sharp rise in the share of employees working part-time may not be as big a concern as it seems at first sight. After all, most of these extra part-timers are still working between 30 and 35 hours... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in small business optimism no game changer 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Leading indicators of unemployment rate provide little hope The indicators that provide some steer of where the unemployment rate is heading over the next few months supply little evidence that it will dip below 8%. What’s more, we doubt that GDP growth will... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
