Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey & Housing Starts (Feb.) February's 50,700 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was +8,000) is a big surprise given how weak GDP growth has been recently. Even after taking into account the 21,900 jobs lost in January... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) February's Employment Report isn't a game changer, but it adds to the evidence from the upbeat ISM surveys released earlier this week that, despite the expiry of the payroll tax cut, higher gasoline... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economy-wide deleveraging may be over The economy-wide deleveraging process, which has constrained the economic recovery over the past four years, may now be over. Moreover, as any remaining deleveraging in the household sector can be... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Still gaining momentum Rebounding household formation and continued investor interest will help housing demand rise further this year. And while supply conditions will stop tightening, they will remain very tight. The... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade & Building Permits (Jan.) January's external trade data bodes well for first-quarter real GDP growth, which we anticipate will increase by 1.5% annualised. Other data released this morning also shows that January's residential... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan. 13) The rebound in the trade deficit to $44.4bn in January, from $38.1bn in December of last year, was a bit bigger than expected (consensus forecast was $42.6bn) and suggests that net external trade will... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada continues to back off rate hikes With inflation now below target and the economy operating well below its potential, it was no surprise to see the Bank of Canada back even further away from raising interest rates. We still think that... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Potential student loan losses are not a systemic concern Rapidly rising delinquency rates have made us more concerned about the quadrupling in student loan debt over the past decade to £1trn. But we still don’t think this poses a major threat to the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) The increase in mortgage interest rates in February weighed on mortgage applications for home purchase and took some heat out of the refinancing boom. But rates are still very low and will continue to... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's exporters struggling to tap US recovery Canada's economy grew by only 0.7% annualised over the second half of last year, with a decline in exports subtracting almost 2 percentage points from annualised GDP. The recent lacklustre pace of non... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jan. 13) House prices rose strongly at the start of 2013 and are likely to perform well across the year as a whole. This is set to be another tear-away year for the housing recovery. 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Better business optimism to prop up GDP The recent improvement in small and medium-sized business optimism concurs with our forecast that economic growth rebounded at the start of 2013. However, the underlying details of the survey suggest... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses shrugging off fiscal uncertainty The sequestration spending cuts will probably only remain in place for a couple of months until Congress reaches a wider budget agreement, so the overall impact on the economy should be modest. More... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 20-month high of 54.2 in February, from 53.1, suggests that US producers are undeterred by the fragile recovery in overseas manufacturing activity, for now... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2012) Canada's economic slowdown over the second half of last year and uncertain prospects ahead put additional pressure on the Bank of Canada to completely abandon its tightening bias next week. Given the... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending (Jan.) Households absorbed the large drop in income in January by reducing their saving rather than their spending. But the effects of the payroll tax hike and the latest surge in gasoline prices will... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
