Decline in home prices still on the way

The latest round of housing data released last week predictably led to more claims that the market is enjoying a soft landing because, even though home sales fell sharply over the second half of last year, prices are still rising, at least at the national level. But, as we've noted before, prices only respond to shifts in sales with a considerable lag. The upshot is that it is impossible to tell whether this is a soft landing or simply the early stages of a more severe housing downturn.