Canada Economics Weekly Bank may not blink despite higher unemployment The communications from the Bank of Canada this week suggest that the rise in the unemployment rate in August is unlikely to be enough to trigger larger interest rate cuts, which is probably a sign... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy losing momentum Second-quarter GDP growth surprised to the upside of the Bank of Canada’s forecast, but the evidence that growth slowed sharply over the quarter suggests that third-quarter growth will be much weaker... 30th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly July CPI cements the case for another 25 bp cut The muted gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in July make another interest rate cut at the September meeting seem inevitable. The Bank will be encouraged by the second soft... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Warning signs for business investment The data this week cast doubt on the Bank of Canada’s view that the worst is already behind us for the economy, with manufacturing sales slumping to a two-and-a-half year low in June and non... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s balancing act weighs risks on both sides With the Summary of Deliberations this week confirming that the Bank of Canada is putting more weight on the downside risks, we feel confident that the Bank will continue to cut interest rates at each... 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth to disappoint the Bank The data this week suggested that second-quarter GDP growth was a touch stronger than expected at 2.1% annualised. We expect higher oil export capacity and strong immigration to prevent a sharp... 2nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada races ahead of the pack The Bank of Canada’s second 25bp interest rate cut, taking the policy rate to 4.50%, was accompanied by a dovish shift in the communications. Our base case is that the Bank will continue to cut rates... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly CPI data just about clear path for another rate cut Despite some measures of monthly core price growth remaining above the rates consistent with 2% inflation, the June CPI release on the whole supported the case for another interest rate cut from the... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Rate cuts will offer relief to housing this year The latest housing market data paint an almost ideal picture for the Bank of Canada, with activity improving, but little sign of a surge in house prices that could derail the downward trend in core... 12th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Weakness boosts odds of another rate cut There was little to be encouraged by this week, with labour market conditions continuing to soften, the business surveys weak and the real estate board data pointing to a risk of renewed falls in... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada still data dependent The May CPI data were a step back after the run of soft core price readings in the first quarter. The broader evidence stills seems supportive of a July interest rate cut, but the next CPI release for... 28th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank leaves its options open The Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s June meeting reiterated that further interest rate cuts are likely but gave little away about how quickly the Bank will move. With another two... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Households deleveraging only slowly The household debt-to-income ratio fell again in the first quarter, albeit because incomes continued to rise at a faster pace than debt levels. Although the aggregate situation is slowly improving... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage growth may still be a concern for the Bank The Bank of Canada kicked off its loosened cycle this week and the accompanying communications left the door open for another cut in July, although still-strong wage pressures are one reason why the... 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP data unlikely to sway the Bank The weaker-than-expected first-quarter GDP data and downward revision to fourth-quarter growth caused markets to price in a higher chance that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates next week... 31st May 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Mission (almost) accomplished The further fall in headline inflation in April, to a three-year low of 2.6%, means the 2% target could be achieved as soon as August. Whether the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates in a couple of... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
