Canada Economics Weekly Economy doing poorly despite upside GDP surprise The upside surprise to third-quarter GDP growth greatly overstates the strength of the economy, with household spending contracting for the first time since the pandemic. Similarly, the Survey of... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft data lends credence to need for more easing A busy week of data releases has left us more confident in our view that the Bank of Canada will feel the need to cut its policy rate below neutral at some point next year to support the economy – not... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank committed to current policy rate for now The Summary of Deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s October meeting contained some mixed messages, but ultimately confirmed that the Bank remains committed to the current policy rate of 2.25% for the... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget plays fast and loose with fiscal truths A deeper dive into the budget reveals a dearth of new investment, toothless spending cuts and an overreliance on private capital. We therefore still expect the Bank of Canada to be forced to cut its... 7th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus shifts from monetary to fiscal policy Despite the hawkish messaging from the Bank of Canada alongside its cut this week, we suspect it will be forced to resume lowering interest rates next year. For now, the attention shifts to fiscal... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trade talks termination emblematic of trade woes President Trump’s termination of trade talks won’t make a big difference to the near-term outlook, given rumours that any imminent deal would only provide modest tariff relief to the metals sectors... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Small businesses sounding the alarm The slump in the CFIB Business Barometer this month leaves it consistent with a renewed decline in GDP. With firms’ inflation expectations under control, that adds weight to our view that the Bank of... 17th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada lacking both carrot and stick in US negotiations Prime Minister Mark Carney had less fortune in the US than the Blue Jays this week, returning with little in the way of relief on sector-specific tariffs or a commitment to the future of CUSMA. The... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly The Bank should be less worried about high inflation The Summary of Deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s September meeting emphasised upside inflation risks. Our sense is that these risks won’t be realised, and so the Bank will gradually come round to... 3rd October 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Population growth slowing to a crawl It seems likely that the Trump administration’s clamp down on legal immigration will boost the attractiveness of Canada for many migrants, but that won’t change the big picture that population growth... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC keeps options open, likely to cut again this year Bank of Canada officials signalled back in July they would support further interest rate cuts if labour market conditions continued to worsen, and this week they delivered, lowering the policy rate by... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Record high TSX won’t prevent rate cuts The surge in the TSX this year has owed a lot to the strength in gold prices, rather than reflecting domestic economic conditions. Accordingly, the near record high in the TSX this week will have... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly September rate cut now looks almost certain The August Labour Force Survey was weak, with employment falling by 66,500 and the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high of 7.1%. While the Bank of Canada always expected some weakness in... 5th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem signals fine tuning of Bank framework Speaking at Banco de Mexico’s 100th anniversary event this week, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem steered clear of discussing the economic or policy outlook. However, he offered some useful hints... 29th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Softer price data keeps two rate cuts on the table The inflation outlook has improved notably in recent days, with core price pressures modest in July and businesses' selling price expectations holding steady this month. While it is still not certain... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank still wrestling with inflation concerns The Bank of Canada could still cut rates in September, depending on the outcome of next week's July price data and the quarterly GDP data released later this month. But the cautious tone on inflation... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
