Canada Economics Weekly The Great Ottawa Shakedown continues Prime Minister Mark Carney's refusal to use energy exports as leverage against the US and decision to ditch yet another levy on US Big Tech shows Ottawa has succumbed to the pressure of watching an... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Latest tariff threat highlights splintering provincial fortunes The newly announced Section 338 tariffs heap more pain on particular industries while again leaving items such as energy and fertiliser unscathed. This special treatment is shaping relative growth... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Venezuela not yet eating Canada’s oil lunch The renewed rise in oil prices is positive news for Canada’s oil sector, but the latest US import data highlight the longer-term risks from greater Venezuelan production. 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly NATO announcements big for headlines, not necessarily GDP Prime Minister Carney's latest defence spending initiatives may buy some goodwill among NATO peers, but it won't provide much of a near-term boost to GDP. 10th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Deal or no deal, trade with the US will remain seismic The lack of agreement to renew CUSMA will change little for trade with the US in the near term. And, even if the US were to withdraw, deep historical integration and lower tariffs post-IEEPA make it... 3rd July 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Sluggish infrastructure push emblematic of broader woes The announcement that the Major Projects Office will grant three infrastructure projects "national interest" status later this year means little for the growth outlook given there are still multiple... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly US-Iran peace deal brings growth risks back to the fore The sharp drop in global oil benchmarks on the back of the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz shifts the balance of risks back towards weaker growth and away from higher inflation... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC unlikely to kick off hiking cycle this year The dovish communications from the Bank of Canada this week, as well as hopes that a US-Iran peace deal is just round the corner, suggest the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged this... 12th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Tariffs back on the agenda The Trump administration's latest tariff announcement will have a negligible impact on the effective tariff rate for Canada. But it seems the administration will be looking for higher US content... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage growth accelerating despite weak activity The surprise 0.1% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP stole the headlines this week, but the bigger concern for the Bank of Canada was arguably the evidence of accelerating wage growth despite... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft demand helping to keep inflation in check Data released this week suggest the hit to consumer demand from higher energy prices is helping to offset some of the direct inflationary impact on firms’ costs. This reduces the risk of second-round... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC still biding its time while war plays out The Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s April meeting didn’t give too much away, though the optimist in us would argue that the tone was less hawkish than in prior communications. This... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Signs of stability rather than green shoots for housing The local real estate board data for April were encouraging, with sales rebounding across the major cities and prices stabilising in Toronto after a long stretch of declines. Nonetheless, with the... 8th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank could still thread the (narrowing) policy needle We still see scope for the Bank of Canada to stall rate hikes until early next year given the looming CUSMA renegotiation and lack of major fiscal stimulus. However, with global oil benchmarks back... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Dire farming outlook risks worsening inflation rebound Record drought conditions in North America along with elevated diesel and fertiliser prices could stoke food inflation and, in turn, households' expectations. This raises the risk that the Bank of... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Majority rules Prime Minister Mark Carney was swift to put his newfound majority to use this week, announcing a suspension of the federal gasoline tax for the next few months. That will not have a huge impact, but... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
