Canada Economics Weekly Business sentiment improving While we still expect that GDP will end the year on a softer note, the latest retail sales data suggest the economy performed a bit better than we thought a week ago, and the latest business surveys... 23rd January 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Prospects for fourth-quarter GDP looking weak The data released this week suggest that the economy contracted in the fourth quarter, although recent experience shows that the quarterly GDP by expenditure data could tell a different story. 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Reports of the oil sands’ death are greatly exaggerated President Trump’s hope to apply his “drill, baby, drill” mantra to Venezuela carries risks for Canada’s oil sector, but even in the most extreme scenario it would be years before we saw a big impact... 9th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly No sign of labour shortages despite falling population Despite the record decline in population in the third quarter, lower immigration does not appear to be leading to labour shortages. That provides some support to our view that the Bank of Canada will... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada unmoved by positive jobs data The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25% this week, wrapping up a year in which it has cut interest rates by a cumulative 100bp. Barring any shocks, the Bank appears comfortable keeping the... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank’s next move be a hike? The risk that the Bank of Canada shifts course and begins hiking is one we had not focused on as closely until today’s stellar November Labour Force Survey. While money markets are now fully pricing... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy doing poorly despite upside GDP surprise The upside surprise to third-quarter GDP growth greatly overstates the strength of the economy, with household spending contracting for the first time since the pandemic. Similarly, the Survey of... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft data lends credence to need for more easing A busy week of data releases has left us more confident in our view that the Bank of Canada will feel the need to cut its policy rate below neutral at some point next year to support the economy – not... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank committed to current policy rate for now The Summary of Deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s October meeting contained some mixed messages, but ultimately confirmed that the Bank remains committed to the current policy rate of 2.25% for the... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget plays fast and loose with fiscal truths A deeper dive into the budget reveals a dearth of new investment, toothless spending cuts and an overreliance on private capital. We therefore still expect the Bank of Canada to be forced to cut its... 7th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus shifts from monetary to fiscal policy Despite the hawkish messaging from the Bank of Canada alongside its cut this week, we suspect it will be forced to resume lowering interest rates next year. For now, the attention shifts to fiscal... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trade talks termination emblematic of trade woes President Trump’s termination of trade talks won’t make a big difference to the near-term outlook, given rumours that any imminent deal would only provide modest tariff relief to the metals sectors... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Small businesses sounding the alarm The slump in the CFIB Business Barometer this month leaves it consistent with a renewed decline in GDP. With firms’ inflation expectations under control, that adds weight to our view that the Bank of... 17th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada lacking both carrot and stick in US negotiations Prime Minister Mark Carney had less fortune in the US than the Blue Jays this week, returning with little in the way of relief on sector-specific tariffs or a commitment to the future of CUSMA. The... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly The Bank should be less worried about high inflation The Summary of Deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s September meeting emphasised upside inflation risks. Our sense is that these risks won’t be realised, and so the Bank will gradually come round to... 3rd October 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Population growth slowing to a crawl It seems likely that the Trump administration’s clamp down on legal immigration will boost the attractiveness of Canada for many migrants, but that won’t change the big picture that population growth... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
