Canada Economics Weekly The midterms don’t mean enough for Ottawa to interfere Accusations that Ottawa is meddling in the upcoming midterm elections are unfounded given that which party holds Congress from next year will have little bearing on the state of the trading... 23rd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Impacts of renewed trade war mixed so far The recent downturn in the manufacturing sector is not entirely attributable to the US' new Section 338 tariffs, though timelier data on new orders suggest there could be more downside yet to be felt. 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak loonie further complicates the Bank’s task This week's fall in Canada's nominal effective exchange rate to its lowest level since the 2016 oil price crash might, at the margin, make Governing Council more reluctant to lean too dovish at... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher yields add to the headwinds for consumers Higher yields are only a modest headwind for consumers but, at a time when real income growth is already slowing, they are another reason to expect weaker consumer spending growth in the coming... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly How much excess capacity actually is there? Signs that the output gap could be widening suggest firms will continue to struggle to pass on higher input costs to consumers. This supports our view that investors have gotten ahead of themselves in... 25th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Carney opts for diversification over retaliation Ottawa sent a clear message this week that it will not engage in further escalation of the trade war with the US, looking past the recently announced import ban to instead focus on opportunities... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump may yet tighten the screw further While the Trump administration's planned import ban on some Canadian goods doesn't change much for the growth outlook, further escalation such as US withdrawal from CUSMA could be disastrous. We... 11th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada joins the hawks The Bank of Canada delivered a hawkish message this week, but the latest labour market data suggest that it will be in no rush to normalise policy. 4th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trade dispute overshadows good news on GDP News that the economy rebounded by a strong 3.3% annualised last quarter will be overshadowed by the fallout from the breakdown in trade negotiations with the US. The biggest risk is that tariffs... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation still in the Bank’s favour The firming of core price growth in July likely reflected temporary factors, rather than being a sign that core inflation is set to accelerate. Nonetheless, we expect the GDP data next week to reveal... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Prospects improve for a deal to avert 50% tariffs Reports this week that the US is willing work with Canada to reduce, though not fully eliminate, some of its sector-specific tariffs make us slightly more confident that the 50% Section 338 tariffs... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy gaining momentum The latest data show an economy gaining momentum. While that suggests we should expect slightly more hawkish communications from the Bank of Canada when it meets next month, the recent softness in... 7th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly The Great Ottawa Shakedown continues Prime Minister Mark Carney's refusal to use energy exports as leverage against the US and decision to ditch yet another levy on US Big Tech shows Ottawa has succumbed to the pressure of watching an... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Latest tariff threat highlights splintering provincial fortunes The newly announced Section 338 tariffs heap more pain on particular industries while again leaving items such as energy and fertiliser unscathed. This special treatment is shaping relative growth... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Venezuela not yet eating Canada’s oil lunch The renewed rise in oil prices is positive news for Canada’s oil sector, but the latest US import data highlight the longer-term risks from greater Venezuelan production. 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly NATO announcements big for headlines, not necessarily GDP Prime Minister Carney's latest defence spending initiatives may buy some goodwill among NATO peers, but it won't provide much of a near-term boost to GDP. 10th July 2026 · 5 mins read
