Canada Economics Weekly Why wait? The upside surprise to first-quarter GDP growth means there is a rising probability that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again. While the commonly held view seems to be that the Bank will... 2nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market conditions easing The decline in the job vacancy rate to a 22-month low in March eases some of the pressure on the Bank of Canada but, with the CFIB Business Barometer showing a renewed rise in firms’ selling price... 26th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada set to raise interest rates again The Bank of Canada’s latest Financial System Review reiterated the risks to households from higher interest rates, but concluded that most are coping well. Following the rapid turnaround in the... 19th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Lending standards tightening, but only modestly The Bank of Canada’s first-quarter Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) showed a sharp tightening of mortgage lending standards, but we already know that has not been enough to prevent a resurgence in... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising house prices could delay policy loosening Following the renewed concerns about regional US banks this week, markets are again pricing in interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada later this year. From a domestic perspective, however, the... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Declining vacancies should soothe Bank’s nerves The Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations suggests it was closer to resuming interest rate hikes in April than we thought. Nonetheless, as the data releases this week showed a fall in the job... 28th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Underlying inflation pressures gradually easing There was positive news for the Bank of Canada this week, as core inflation eased further in March. While our new house price forecasts imply there will be less disinflationary pressure from shelter... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem pushes back against rate cut expectations Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem used his press conference this week to push back against expectations for interest rate cuts later this year. That partly reflects the Bank’s less downbeat... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly House price rebound would make Bank’s job harder The local real estate board data suggest that new listings fell again in March, defying expectations that high interest rates could lead to forced home sales. With supply falling by more than demand... 6th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Temporary factors support strong start to the year The strength of GDP growth at the start of the year reflected several temporary factors. The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys, released next week, will provide a better guide to how firms and... 31st March 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly 2023 Budget unlikely to include large stimulus Despite the news this week that the population surged by more than one million last year, weak new home sales imply that construction activity will soon fall. That raises the pressure on the... 24th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Most of the hit from high interest rates still to come The fixed payment structure of most variable rate mortgages has cushioned households from the impact of high interest rates so far, with the data this week confirming that debt service costs remained... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank maintains high bar for future rate hikes Despite the renewed hawkishness of central bankers elsewhere, the speech that followed the Bank of Canada’s policy announcement this week suggests that the bar to resume rate hikes remains high. 10th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Full effects of higher rates yet to be felt The latest data give the Bank of Canada plenty to think about ahead of its policy announcement next week. The data appear to lend support to the Bank’s view that a soft landing is still achievable... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Fall in inflation partly due to one-off effects The larger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in January was partly due to one-off effects, but still reduces the chance that the Bank of Canada will be forced to resume raising interest rates... 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank still in wait-and-see mode Governor Tiff Macklem reiterated this week that the Bank of Canada wants time to assess the impact of high interest rates, suggesting it will not respond to the strength of employment by immediately... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
