Canada Economics Weekly Canada lacking both carrot and stick in US negotiations Prime Minister Mark Carney had less fortune in the US than the Blue Jays this week, returning with little in the way of relief on sector-specific tariffs or a commitment to the future of CUSMA. The... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly The Bank should be less worried about high inflation The Summary of Deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s September meeting emphasised upside inflation risks. Our sense is that these risks won’t be realised, and so the Bank will gradually come round to... 3rd October 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Population growth slowing to a crawl It seems likely that the Trump administration’s clamp down on legal immigration will boost the attractiveness of Canada for many migrants, but that won’t change the big picture that population growth... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC keeps options open, likely to cut again this year Bank of Canada officials signalled back in July they would support further interest rate cuts if labour market conditions continued to worsen, and this week they delivered, lowering the policy rate by... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Record high TSX won’t prevent rate cuts The surge in the TSX this year has owed a lot to the strength in gold prices, rather than reflecting domestic economic conditions. Accordingly, the near record high in the TSX this week will have... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly September rate cut now looks almost certain The August Labour Force Survey was weak, with employment falling by 66,500 and the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high of 7.1%. While the Bank of Canada always expected some weakness in... 5th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem signals fine tuning of Bank framework Speaking at Banco de Mexico’s 100th anniversary event this week, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem steered clear of discussing the economic or policy outlook. However, he offered some useful hints... 29th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Softer price data keeps two rate cuts on the table The inflation outlook has improved notably in recent days, with core price pressures modest in July and businesses' selling price expectations holding steady this month. While it is still not certain... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank still wrestling with inflation concerns The Bank of Canada could still cut rates in September, depending on the outcome of next week's July price data and the quarterly GDP data released later this month. But the cautious tone on inflation... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Weaker data support September rate cut The weaker housing and trade data released this week support our call for a September rate cut, a view which investors are beginning to come round to. 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank still navigating uncertain terrain While the Bank of Canada maintained the same rationale for holding rates steady in July as it did in June, our initial reaction to the meeting’s communications was that the tone had shifted... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Industry support ramps up as trade negotiations slow The recent ramp-up in support for auto and steel manufacturers suggests the federal government is serious about holding out for a better trade deal with the US, even if that means missing the August... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Elevated core inflation a concern, for now While elevated core inflation rules out a Bank of Canada rate cut this month, industrial product price inflation and the survey data suggest that threat will soon subside. Together with weak GDP in... 18th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Defence boost demands more than a federal whip-round The federal government’s ambitious plans to boost defence spending will require more than operational spending cuts, although Canada’s favourable fiscal position leaves plenty of scope to borrow... 11th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Trade woes continue The May trade release underscored the difficulties facing exporters. On the face of it the data were positive, as exports rose by 1.1% while imports fell by 1.6% m/m. This was off the back of a grim... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: High services inflation not a big concern The CPI data showed the Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures rose by an average of 0.2% m/m in May, which was lower than in the previous month but still a bit too strong... 27th June 2025 · 5 mins read
