Canada Economics Weekly Dire farming outlook risks worsening inflation rebound Record drought conditions in North America along with elevated diesel and fertiliser prices could stoke food inflation and, in turn, households' expectations. This raises the risk that the Bank of... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Majority rules Prime Minister Mark Carney was swift to put his newfound majority to use this week, announcing a suspension of the federal gasoline tax for the next few months. That will not have a huge impact, but... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly USTR’s CUSMA guarantee will do little to settle nerves US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's comments this week confirm that the Trump administration will not elect to renew CUSMA on July 1st, raising uncertainty over when a new trade framework will be... 10th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank still calm about second-round inflation effects The Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s March policy meetings gave no indication that policymakers are overly concerned about second‑round inflationary pressures stemming from the... 2nd April 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly SEPH paints a brighter picture of employment this year The large decline in the official population data last quarter suggests the Labour Force Survey is still not entirely picking up the collapse in immigration and should therefore give a more... 27th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly War-charged markets push back against dovish Bank Despite the Bank of Canada striking a relatively dovish tone with this week's rate decision, it has found itself swept up in the broader rally in investors' rate expectations. Our base case remains... 20th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the economy tipping into recession? The weakness in activity in January and the labour market in February leaves GDP at risk of a second consecutive quarterly contraction. However, temporary factors are seemingly to blame, as the recent... 13th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher oil prices to boost inflation more than GDP The surge in oil prices will be positive for the economy, but pipeline capacity constraints mean that the boost to real GDP growth will be only modest. Nonetheless, together with the impact on... 6th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Some positive signs despite decline in GDP The 0.6% annualised contraction in fourth-quarter GDP stole the headlines this week but the details were arguably much more encouraging than the third quarter, when GDP rose by 2.4%. Thanks partly to... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trade reorientation away from US has a distance to go Today’s ruling that Donald Trump’s use of IEEPA tariffs was illegal will not deter policymakers in Ottawa from continuing to prioritise the reorientation of trade flows toward other markets, with... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Up-and-down week foreshadows CUSMA renegotiation A week of political drama, much of it emanating from south of the border, provides useful insight into how we can expect the CUSMA renegotiation to unfold. 13th February 2026 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing could take a while to thaw The local real estate board data for January shows that the housing market is still struggling, and we probably can’t blame it all on the weather. Meanwhile, the large fall in the unemployment rate... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Direction of next rate move depends on timeframe Heightened uncertainty surrounding the outlook has the Bank leaving all options on the table. While we think the policy rate’s next move will be upwards and not come until 2027, any change before then... 30th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Business sentiment improving While we still expect that GDP will end the year on a softer note, the latest retail sales data suggest the economy performed a bit better than we thought a week ago, and the latest business surveys... 23rd January 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Prospects for fourth-quarter GDP looking weak The data released this week suggest that the economy contracted in the fourth quarter, although recent experience shows that the quarterly GDP by expenditure data could tell a different story. 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Reports of the oil sands’ death are greatly exaggerated President Trump’s hope to apply his “drill, baby, drill” mantra to Venezuela carries risks for Canada’s oil sector, but even in the most extreme scenario it would be years before we saw a big impact... 9th January 2026 · 5 mins read
