US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr. 13) April’s retail sales data provided the strongest sign yet that households have largely shrugged off January’s tax hikes. This is perhaps partly due to the recent plunge in gasoline prices, which has... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's advance likely to fizzle out The Canadian dollar's recent advance is likely to fizzle out as it becomes clearer to the market that Canada's economy is actually losing momentum. We expect lower commodity prices and a severe... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outlook for bank lending remains favourable The fall in the stock of credit card debt in March tells us almost nothing about the outlook for consumption. More useful are other signs that credit card lending will rise over the next year. At the... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's moderate 12,500 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was +15,000) suggests that the economy has begun this quarter on a somewhat softer footing. If we are correct about the economy's... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing starts likely to decline further The continued decline in housing starts from elevated levels supports our view that residential investment will remain a drag on economic growth over the first half of 2013. Unfortunately, housing... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q1 13 The rise in mortgage delinquencies in Q1 is a reminder that it’s not all plain sailing for the housing recovery. But the gradual improvement in the labour market suggests that that the delinquency... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Non-distressed home sales up sharply Behind the small decline in overall home sales in March were several pieces of good news. Sales of new homes rose, an increasing share of total home sales took place under non-distressed conditions... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing's rebalancing act unlikely to be painless The downward trend in housing starts supports our long-held view that a housing correction is underway. More importantly, the slump in pre-construction condo sales and dwindling number of new project... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) Mortgage applications for home purchase have risen in seven of the past eight months, including in the most recent data relating to April. Taken alongside the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar. 13) The further rise in house prices in March may prompt further concerns that prices are entering bubble territory. But a closer look suggests that it would take several more years of prices increasing... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Retailers could be shifting to part-time employment The evidence is far from conclusive, but the recent decline in average weekly hours worked, particularly in the retail sector, may be partly explained by employers cutting hours to avoid paying the... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Banks still loosening lending standards The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey indicates that commercial banks have further loosened lending standards, particularly on loans to businesses. The net percentage of banks reporting in the... 6th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed won’t provide numerical thresholds for QE3 The Fed won’t follow its recent hint that it could increase as well as reduce the pace of its monthly asset purchases by stating what combination of the unemployment and inflation rates would trigger... 6th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New Bank Governor, same problems The announcement that Stephen Poloz will be the next Bank of Canada Governor came as something of a surprise, since the current number two at the Bank, Tiff Macklem, was widely tipped to take over... 6th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The better than expected 165,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April, combined with the 114,000 upward revision to the gains in the preceding two months, will go a long way toward soothing fears of... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homeownership rate likely to fall further yet Tight credit conditions and the backlog of foreclosures still to be worked through mean that the homeownership rate will slide lower over the next year or so. But with owner-occupation still the... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
