US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The sharp decline in durable goods orders in March is another indication that, after a pretty strong first quarter, the recovery is losing momentum again. 24th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Spring slowdown unlikely to be severe If the economy has entered another spring slowdown, we doubt it will be as severe as in recent years. Admittedly, the latest news on employment and retail sales suggests that the economy lost some... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar. 13) After the weaker than expected existing home sales figures, the increase in new home sales in March comes as a bit of a relief. The rise was only slight, but the indications are that activity will... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) February's retail sales volumes, which were unchanged from the month before, suggest that first-quarter household consumption grew somewhat more slowly than in the previous quarter. This supports our... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US recovery due to more than just the energy boom The boom in domestic energy production and the indirect benefits to the rest of the economy from lower natural gas prices have played only a minor role in the US economy's strong performance compared... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Despite the Fed’s continuing quantitative easing, the growth rates of the broad monetary aggregates have actually fallen over the past few months. The annual growth rate of our measure of the broadest... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar. 13) The small slide in existing home sales in March may add to concerns from some quarters that the housing recovery is hitting a soft patch. But look closely and there are a fair number of positives in... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank overly optimistic about economic outlook The Bank of Canada and, to a lesser extent, the International Monetary Fund still remain overly optimistic about Canada's economic growth outlook. The IMF has acknowledged, however, that the negative... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slump in energy prices could provide much-needed boost The slump in energy prices suggests that second-quarter GDP growth might not be as bad as we had initially feared when the incoming data for March proved to be unexpectedly weak. 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) The official core inflation figure, which held steady at 1.4% in March, is likely to drift lower through this year, as the excess slack in the economy continues to grow due to sluggish economic growth... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Homebuilding recovery will continue despite thorns in its side The homebuilding recovery is running into a number of constraints, prompting three consecutive monthly falls in the NAHB homebuilder confidence index. In a worst-case scenario, confidence could weaken... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Canada enjoying wealth advantage over US Based on our calculations of total domestic net worth, Canadians appears to be better off than their seemingly more affluent neighbours to the south. The problem is that the advantage Canada enjoys is... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada sticks with rate tightening bias The Bank of Canada's decision to stick with its rate tightening bias, despite growing economic slack and below-target inflation, rests uncomfortably on its faith that economic growth will accelerate... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Mar.) Despite house prices rebounding by 0.4% m/m in March, the annual rate of house price growth dropped to a three-year low of 2.6%, down from 2.7% in February. We expect that, as existing home sales... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Feb.) February's surprising 2.5% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales volumes, which follows two consecutive monthly declines, suggests that overall economic growth in that month might have increased by 0.2%... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Mar.) With inflation remaining unusually low, the Fed is under little pressure to slow or halt QE. We expect it to continue with open-ended asset purchases until early next year, although it may still slow... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
