If the economy has entered another spring slowdown, we doubt it will be as severe as in recent years. Admittedly, the latest news on employment and retail sales suggests that the economy lost some momentum at the end of the first quarter. But so far that easing in growth has been modest and we still expect GDP to expand at an annualised pace of around 2.0% in the second quarter. One difference between this year’s slowdown and the ones in previous years is that this time round the housing market is much stronger.
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