How reliable is the Philly Fed index?

The plunge in the Philly Fed manufacturing index in August is not a sure-fire sign that a recession is imminent. The ISM index is more reliable. And even if the ISM index were to fall in line with the regional surveys in August, it would still not point to a recession. Nonetheless, the bulk of the survey evidence is consistent with our view that GDP growth will remain sluggish at best for a long period.

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