Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s rapid wage growth flying under the radar The slowdown that we expect in Brazil’s economy should take some steam out of the labour market, but it looks like it won’t be enough to stop wages from rising at a rapid pace. This appears to be a... 1st February 2023 · 12 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Dec.) Despite the solid payrolls data for December, there was a clear softening in employment growth in several large metros. But those that have performed the best since the pandemic continue to outperform... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Dec.) The euro-zone unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.6% in December but is likely to increase over the coming months as the economy falls into recession. That said, the increase will probably be smaller... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Employment has been resilient so far While we expect employment to weaken, it’s happening at a glacial pace. That feeds into our view that once interest rates peak (perhaps at 4.50% up from 3.50% now) they will stay high for all of this... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Activity (Dec. 2022) The unemployment rate stayed unchanged in December, but labour market conditions are beginning to betray signs of loosening. Similarly, the strong rebound in retail sales is likely to give way to... 31st January 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Shunto not a leading indicator of wage growth The conventional wisdom is that the annual spring wage negotiations (Shunto) are a bellwether for wage growth. In reality, the small number of employees covered by the talks and their bias towards... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Easing labour shortages support Bank’s pause Governor Tiff Macklem stressed on Wednesday that the pause in the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle is conditional on looser conditions in the labour market and a fall in inflation expectations. The... 27th January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Sharper slowdown in jobs growth coming We expect a more modest 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January. The annual benchmark revisions may also show a sharper slowdown in employment growth over the second half of last year than... 26th January 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Lifting the official retirement age is not the answer The contraction in China’s population has triggered renewed discussion of what the government could do to counter the demographic drag. One popular suggestion is to lift China’s statutory retirement... 25th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to much slower employment growth The sharp fall in hiring intentions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey suggests that the 104,000 surge in employment in December is not a sign of things to come. The survey points to a... 23rd January 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s hot labour market, Argentine bonds Expectations for inflation and interest rates in Brazil have shifted up on the back of Lula’s fiscal plans, but an equally (if not more) concerning development on this front is the surge in wage... 20th January 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Domestic inflation is proving persistent CPI inflation is falling, but domestic inflationary pressures are proving persistent as the labour market remains tight and wage growth remains strong. Combined with a more resilient economy than the... 20th January 2023 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack Weakness spreads to the hard activity data First came the inversion of the yield curve. Next the index of leading indicators began to fall. Then the survey-based activity indicators plunged well below the 50 mark. Finally, this week we learned... 19th January 2023 · 10 mins read
