Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds to take the shine off the recovery We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we... 20th January 2022 · 29 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to remain elevated as GDP growth slows We expect underlying inflation to remain well above the 2% target this year, which means the Fed will push ahead with four rate hikes even though real GDP growth is likely to disappoint. Core... 20th January 2022 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBNZ will ease even as RBA starts to tighten Australia’s Omicron outbreak will hold back the recovery this quarter, but there are plenty of reasons why Australia will outperform New Zealand over the next couple of years. As the labour market has... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2021) The further decline in the Australian unemployment rate in December supports our forecast that the RBA will end its asset purchases in February. 20th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Nov./Dec.) The labour market appears to have tightened after the end of the furlough scheme and at the start of the Omicron wave. So even though real wages are now falling and will decline further, we still... 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook More inflation, more interest rate hikes Although the hit to households’ real incomes from a bigger surge in CPI inflation than most expect (to a peak of almost 7% in April) explains why we think GDP growth will be slower this year than the... 17th January 2022 · 27 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) Official GDP growth beat expectations last quarter and in q/q terms was the strongest since late 2020. But we are sceptical that this reflects the reality on the ground – our China Activity Proxy... 17th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Ramifications could be bigger if PM stays than if he goes The growing uncertainty over the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's position is unlikely to dent economic activity. Arguably, though, if a leadership challenge is avoided or Boris Johnson wins it, the... 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korean labour market not as healthy as it looks At face value, the Korean labour market figures for December paint an encouraging picture, with total employment rising to a new record high. However, a detailed examination of data reveals just how... 14th January 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update What explains the surge in household employment? The incredibly strong gains in the household survey measure of employment over the final two months of last year, which have come at the same time as the more closely-watched payroll measure showed... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ still facing no inflation pressure The Omicron surge will cause a renewed fall in consumer spending this quarter. But we still expect GDP to return to its pre-virus path in the second half of the year. And while Omicron and any... 12th January 2022 · 22 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation to remain above target in 2022 Euro-zone inflation reached 5.0% in December, which is likely to be the peak. Unless oil and gas prices surge again in 2022, which seems unlikely, energy inflation will plummet – we forecast the... 11th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Nov.) Unemployment in the euro-zone fell again in November, and timelier data suggest that there have been further improvements since then. While there has been less of a hit to the workforce in the euro... 10th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Omicron a new type of challenge for labour market The Omicron wave will be characterised more by heightened absenteeism from work than previous waves. This raises the risk that the hit to activity will be larger than current restrictions alone might... 7th January 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) While the 199,000 gain in non-farm payrolls once again disappointed the consensus, a much larger gain in the household measure of employment and a tepid rise in participation pushed the unemployment... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The strength of employment in December is mainly because the LFS reference week preceded the onset of the Omicron wave. Nevertheless, the fall in hours worked is probably a taste of what is to come... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
