Japan Economic Outlook BoJ’s Yield Curve Control under threat We expect Japan’s economic output to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year. With the recovery from the pandemic complete, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.7% this year to just 1.0% in... 30th March 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Feb. 2022) Employment was unchanged in February after January’s sizeable fall. But with all domestic restrictions since lifted and activity resuming its recovery, employment is set for a strong rebound over the... 29th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation outlook becomes more nuanced Less than a week after the Fed raised interest rates by 25bp at its policy meeting and issued projections showing that it intended to hike rates at each of the remaining six meetings this year, Chair... 25th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Support measures won’t prevent inflation reaching 2% The government is preparing fresh support measures to lower prices of petroleum products, which will reduce the drag on household incomes and will prevent inflation from breaching 2% for now. We still... 25th March 2022 · 8 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth set for gradual slowdown We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by 450,000 in March, marking the beginning of a gradual slowdown. The report should also provide further evidence that wage pressures are starting to ease. 24th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE The potential for around 3 million refugees to settle in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by the middle of this year will present a large fiscal cost, but will also boost the size of the labour force... 23rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Inflation to fall sharply in H2 While the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil mean energy prices will remain elevated and push headline inflation above 8% in March, it will still fall sharply later this year. Energy... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Market-implied policy tightening could topple housing The surge in interest rate expectations is a key risk to housing. We recently set out how, due to the much larger share of variable rate mortgages than before the pandemic, the Bank of Canada would... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack War in Ukraine to drag on EM GDP growth The war in Ukraine will have several economic repercussions for the emerging world. We have lowered our aggregate EM GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 1%-pt, to 3.2%. Russia aside, the biggest downward... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tightening would require wage growth of at least 2% Governor Kuroda admitted last week that inflation could hit the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in April but stressed that “that in no way signifies there will be a revision of our current monetary policy”... 21st March 2022 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Migration revival won’t let RBA off the hook Migration is rebounding much faster after the border reopening than we had anticipated. While that will slow the decline in the unemployment rate, the labour market is already historically tight and... 21st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q4) The latest data show that euro-zone wage growth remained subdued at the end of last year, despite reports of widespread labour shortages. The tightening in the labour market that we expect is likely... 18th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 2022) The further decline in the Australian unemployment rate takes the labour market closer to full employment, setting the RBA up to hike rates in June. 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) The further fall in the unemployment rate to within a whisker of the pre-pandemic rate will only encourage the Bank of England to raise interest rates on Thursday, probably from 0.50% to 0.75%... 15th March 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.), PBOC Rates (Mar.) Activity data for the first two months of the year was stronger than anticipated, which probably explains why the People’s Bank (PBOC) unexpectedly kept its policy rates on hold today. But the economy... 15th March 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus Fewer workers, higher wages We think that most of the fall in the size of the UK’s labour force since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic should eventually be reversed. Even so, we wouldn’t be surprised if this took another two... 14th March 2022 · 19 mins read
