Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Consumption to surge even as real incomes fall We now expect Australia’s inflation to rise by more than 6% this year. Even allowing for an acceleration in earnings growth and a further solid rise in employment as immigration resumes, that will... 17th May 2022 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Mar./Apr.) Even though the economy contracted in March and may be on the brink of a recession, jobs growth strengthened, the unemployment rate fell to a 47-year low of 3.7% and wage growth accelerated. This... 17th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rising CPI expectations occupying minds at Riksbank Just as policymakers at the ECB are becoming more concerned about inflation expectations, the rise in expectations in Sweden is giving the Riksbank plenty to fret about too. The Bank’s preferred... 13th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack High inflation is hurting real spending Recent data have shown the firmest evidence yet that high inflation is damaging real consumer spending in advanced economies. Real retail sales fell in the US, UK, and euro-zone in March, while... 13th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Minimum wage to rise by 4% this year Suggestions by Labor leader Albanese that minimum wage increases in line with inflation plus productivity growth are sustainable are wide of the mark at a time when consumer prices are rising twice as... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wage pressures intensify amid high inflation The current bout of high inflation is influencing wage negotiations in the euro-zone and stronger pay growth this year seems all but guaranteed, reinforcing the ECB’s resolve to normalise policy. But... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Wage growth will rise further before it falls The 6% rise in the minimum wage will help lift wage growth further this year. But a loosening labour market and smaller minimum wage hikes in the years ahead will facilitate a slow down in wage growth... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weaker economy yet to dent price expectations The weaker economic outlook triggered by the surge in CPI inflation to a 30-year high of 7.0% in March has yet to put a dent in businesses own expectations for their selling prices. The Bank of... 10th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Mar. 22) Nominal wage growth stayed at 1.2% in March and we think it could touch 2% over the coming months as overtime and bonus payments get back to their pre-virus levels. But with base pay growth still weak... 9th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The sharp slowdown in employment growth and large decline in hours worked in April present downside risks to GDP growth but, as temporary factors seem to explain much of the weakness, there is likely... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The solid 428,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in April illustrates that the Fed was right to ignore the misleading contraction in first-quarter GDP, with the economy still on a firm footing... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA recovery falters, wage talks, Kenya’s soft start to 2022 Recent flooding in a key province and warnings this week that power cuts could reach unprecedented levels are the latest in a long list of blows to South Africa’s economy that have repeatedly stifled... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation becoming more entrenched The latest data suggest that the increase in inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent. While headline inflation only edged up in April, the core measure jumped to 3.5%. A range of... 5th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems building Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is likely to remain slow going and our growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. While spillovers from the war in Ukraine will boost a handful of economies –... 4th May 2022 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2022) The continued tightness in the New Zealand labour market despite the omicron outbreak provides further evidence that the economy is still running hot. That’s why we expect the RBNZ to hike rates by 50... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions remain tight While the job openings and quits rates both edged up again in March, the bigger picture remains that labour market conditions have been stable over the past nine months or so, with few signs that... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
