Europe Chart Pack Ukraine war stokes inflation, reduces growth The war in Ukraine has prompted us to revise our forecasts for euro-zone GDP, inflation and monetary policy. Russia’s downturn in 2015 had no obvious impact on euro-zone GDP and Russia has become less... 4th March 2022 · 12 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The stronger than expected 678,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February and upward revisions to previous months gains is another sign that the real economy has considerable momentum, with the Omicron... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Jan. 2022) Employment fell back yet again in January after a strong rebound in December. But while employment might have fallen a bit further in February due to the Omicron wave, it should soon bounce back fast... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Energy markets present upside risk to the Gulf The Gulf economies are key beneficiaries from the rise in energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. On an annualised basis, oil at $100pb would increase hydrocarbon export revenues by 7-10%... 28th February 2022 · 15 mins read
China Chart Pack Renminbi strength a headache for the PBOC As well as a geopolitical quagmire for China’s leadership, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a headache for the PBOC. It has been signalling its dissatisfaction with the strength of the renminbi... 28th February 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack War in Europe Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has caused turmoil in financial markets across the region. Western nations have imposed sanctions on Russia, including targeting some of its largest banks and... 25th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fresh headwinds appear The easing of Omicron waves, and loosening of restrictions, across Latin America will have given a lift to recoveries in recent weeks, but the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis presents a fresh... 24th February 2022 · 16 mins read
US Employment Report Preview A strong month for payrolls as Omicron fades Reflecting the stronger trend in employment growth apparent in the revised payroll data and the collapse in Omicron cases in February, we expect non-farm payrolls to rise by 600,000 this month. 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Inflationary pressures broadening The evidence of broadening inflationary pressures and the further rise in oil prices suggest that the balance of risks to our inflation forecast lies to the upside. The January consumer price data... 23rd February 2022 · 8 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows no major macro concern Net portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have picked up over recent weeks as the growing prospects of war between Ukraine and Russia and tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 23rd February 2022 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4) The Q4 wage data won’t alter the RBA’s view that inflation isn’t sustainably within its 2-3% target band yet, but we still expect the Bank to start hiking in June as inflation surprises to the upside. 23rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Post-booster bounce in the spring Services spending jumped to only 3% below its pre-virus level in Q4 2021 despite having begun the quarter on a weak footing with curfews still in place for bars and restaurants across many regions in... 21st February 2022 · 10 mins read
US Chart Pack Better news on inflation is coming The further rise in CPI inflation to 7.5% in January and hawkish comments from Fed officials have seen markets rush to price in a series of aggressive interest rate hikes this year. But recent weeks... 17th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2022) The further rise in Australian employment despite the Omicron outbreak in January highlights the resilience of the Australian labour market and supports our forecast that the RBA will hike rates in... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) Employment has recouped the falls after the furlough scheme, the unemployment rate has fallen to pre-COVID levels, job vacancies are at a record high and wage growth is rising. That’s a recipe for... 15th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Weak start to 2022 won’t deter monetary tightening While data from the past month have been consistent with global economic activity picking up some pace towards the tail end of 2021, timely data point to a weak turn of the year as the Omicron wave... 11th February 2022 · 14 mins read
