UK Economics Labour Market (Oct./Nov.) Even though the fallout after the furlough scheme was smaller and shorter than the Bank of England had feared, concerns over the deteriorating COVID-19 situation will probably prevent it from raising... 14th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage-boosting tax breaks, Toyota setback The government’s new plan to offer firms more generous tax deductions for raising wages is unlikely to lift wage growth to 3% as targeted by PM Kishida. But with smaller firms being offered corporate... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market slack falling to generational lows The rebound in the job openings rate close to a record high in October means that the number of unemployed Americans per job opening fell to its lowest level since the early 1950s. That underlines the... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) Data released today show that the euro-zone economy recovered to within 0.5% of its pre-pandemic level in Q3. But with Covid cases rising, governments tightening restrictions, and supply problems... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Omicron may weaken activity but lift price pressures While the emergence of the Omicron COVID-19 variant has increased the downside risks to our GDP forecasts, it has arguably increased the upside risks to our CPI inflation forecasts. The... 7th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Oct. 2021) Wage growth stayed weak in October but it should accelerate as the labour market tightens and the recent vaccine-led reopening allows a full recovery in overtime and bonus payments. Meanwhile, the... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Omicron adds to downside risks High frequency data show that travel to retail and recreation destinations, restaurant bookings and flights have all declined in the past few weeks as coronavirus restrictions have been tightened in... 6th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Japan Economics Update Participation rate set to fall further The pandemic has brought a halt to the last decade’s rise in Japan’s participation rate which had allowed the labour force to expand despite challenging demographics. Any post-pandemic recovery is... 6th December 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The disappointing 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November suggests the labour market recovery was faltering even before the potential impact of the new Omicron variant, possibly due to the... 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The surge in employment in November and the further strong gain in average earnings have arguably tipped the odds in favour of the Bank of Canada hiking interest rates in the first half of next year... 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will labour shortages spur productivity gains? One possible upside of the current labour market shortages in developed economies is that they could push firms towards expanding output by raising investment and productivity instead of relying on... 2nd December 2021 · 19 mins read
UK Economics Labour shortages to push up wages for a bit longer The latest data suggest that the upward pressure on wage growth from labour shortages has a bit further to run. Admittedly, the discovery of the Omicron variant has clouded the near-term outlook for... 30th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Oct. 2021) Employment fell sharply again in October despite the lifting of states of emergency declarations at the start of the month. However, it should rebound sharply across November and December in line with... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Diverging outlook for monetary policy While the RBNZ has lifted interest rates by 50bp and signalled that as much as 200bp of tightening is still to come, the RBA’s central scenario remains that interest rates won’t be raised until 2024... 29th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Border reopening won’t ease labour shortages much Australia’s government isn’t keen on opening the immigration floodgates once the border reopens to migrants next year and we still expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4% by 2023. Nor do we expect... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell gets the nod; GDP growth rebounding The announcement on Monday morning that President Biden would nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed Chair was largely as expected, although the unexplained delays in making it official may... 24th November 2021 · 7 mins read
