US Employment Report Preview Slowdown ahead We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by a solid 500,000 in November, but the growing risk of a winter COVID wave and a dwindling supply of available workers look set to weigh on employment growth... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Backsliding on reforms? The repeal this month of controversial reforms aimed at liberalising the agriculture sector is arguably the biggest political setback that the Modi government has faced since coming to power in 2014... 24th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Wage growth picking up The sharp slowdown in the pace of hiring in the October Labour Force Survey caught the headlines, but the more important development was the sharp rise in fixed-weight average hourly earnings. Based... 23rd November 2021 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth and inflation to continue to strengthen RBA Governor Phillip Lowe doubled down on the view wage growth will remain too low to justify a rate hike anytime soon. But wages for workers on individual agreements is soaring. And we think wage... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM tightening cycles have further to run Inflation in the emerging world has generally surprised to the upside in recent months. But while inflation in most parts of Asia remains at levels which central banks are comfortable with, it has... 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
US Chart Pack Fed’s inflation dilemma isn’t going away Whether Jerome Powell or Lael Brainard is given the nod over the coming days, the next 12-18 months are shaping up to be an unusually challenging period for the Fed Chair. The October data showed a... 18th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Automobile sector set for swift rebound While October’s trade data showed good exports still depressed by the recent collapse in domestic car production, there is growing anecdotal evidence that the auto sector is on the cusp of a rapid... 18th November 2021 · 10 mins read
India Economics Focus How much scarring will the pandemic leave? The pandemic’s most significant economic legacy in India will be a heavily-damaged banking sector that is likely to constrain investment over the years ahead. This underpins our view that the economy... 17th November 2021 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3) The 0.6% q/q rise in the wage price index in Q3 will provide the RBA with some confidence that rates need to remain low in the near term. But we think that wage growth will rise over 2022, putting... 17th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wage indexation won’t drive second round effects The current bout of high inflation will put much less direct upward pressure on negotiated wages in the euro-zone than in previous such episodes. This is because far fewer agreements now contain... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3) The decent increase in euro-zone GDP in Q3 means that the recovery is now almost complete in most of the region. We had already expected growth to slow markedly in Q4 as the boost from reopening fades... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Sep./Oct.) This labour market release is the first of two before the Bank of England’s December policy meeting and it suggests that the labour market remained tight after the furlough scheme ended. If the story... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Oct.) Industrial growth rebounded last month as energy shortages eased. But this pick-up is likely to be short-lived given the deepening downturn in property construction. And while retail sales also... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions even tighter The September Job Opening and Labour Turnover survey shows labour market conditions are far tighter than the 4.6% unemployment rate suggests, and points to continued rapid wage growth. With... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct.) The rise in the unemployment rate suggests that the labour market continued to suffer right up until the end of the recent lockdowns. But given the ending of lockdowns in mid-October we expect the... 11th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Inflation on the launchpad We’ve been warning for a while that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect and have recently pushed our own forecast even higher. We now think CPI inflation will rise from 3.1% in... 10th November 2021 · 9 mins read
